The Denver Nuggets (13-3) will try to continue their six-game winning streak against the Sacramento Kings (7-10) at Golden 1 Center. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 30, 2019.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 205.5 points with Denver set as a 4-point favorite.
Denver Nuggets vs. Sacramento Kings ATS Prediction
The last time the Nuggets played, they covered the 10-point spread against the Washington Wizards, 117-104. The game’s total points (221) finished under the O/U total of 227. The Nuggets held the Wizards to an offensive rebounding percentage of 9.4 (below their season average of 23.2). The Wizards had a free throw rate of 0.147 (below the 0.202 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season). Will Barton fueled Denver with 17 points, eight rebounds and eight assists.
The Kings were beaten by the Philadelphia 76ers in their last game, 97-91, but were able to cover as 9.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (188) were well under the O/U total of 210.5. Making free throws was one of Philadelphia’s biggest strengths. They were 20-24 (83.3 percent), while the Kings were just 4-9 (44.4 percent). With 14 points, nine rebounds and six assists, Harrison Barnes had a good game for Sacramento.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Kings lost 101-94, unable to cover as 5-point underdogs. Richaun Holmes led both teams with 24 points and also added 13 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 195 points, which was 22 points below the projected point total of 217 points. The Nuggets made 19 of their 21 free throws (90.5 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (8.5 vs. 10.9).
Denver is 13-3 straight up (SU), but they are just 7-7-2 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Nuggets tend to finish under the projected point total (75.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Sacramento owns records of 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS. Similarly to Denver, Kings games also tend to finish under the total (70.6 percent).
The ineffective offense of Sacramento (23rd in the league with an offensive efficiency of 104.7) will go head-to-head against the top-notch defense of Denver (third in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 101.2). The Nuggets should have the edge on that side of the ball.
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings ATS Pick
Free Pick: ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
On the road, Denver is 3-2-1 ATS with 4 unders and 2 overs.
At home, Sacramento is 4-3 ATS with 4 unders and 3 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Sacramento is 3-2 and Denver is 8-0.
The Kings are 7-4 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 11-3.
Denver ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.6) while Sacramento ranks 29th (41.3).
The Nuggets rank eighth in points in the paint per game (48.9) while the Kings rank 27th (40.2).
Sacramento ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (10.8) while Denver ranks 18th (13.5).
The Kings rank 12th in three pointers attempted per game (34.9) while the Nuggets rank 28th (29.4).
Denver averages 7.8 steals per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Sacramento ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.5).
The Nuggets rank third in second chance points allowed per game (10.5) while the Kings rank 14th (13.1).
Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.3) while Sacramento ranks ninth (16.5).
The Nuggets average 26.1 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Kings rank 11th in assists allowed per game (23.3).
Over its last five games, Denver is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 5.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 104.6 points per game (0.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (0.6 below their season average).