The Golden State Warriors (9-33) will try to put an end to their nine-game losing streak when they square off with the Denver Nuggets (28-12) at Chase Center. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 16, 2020, and will air on TNT.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors ATS Prediction
In the Nuggets’ last game, they easily covered the 1-point spread against the Charlotte Hornets, 100-86. The game’s total points (186) came in well under the O/U total of 220. The Nuggets had a free throw rate of 0.190 (above their season average of 0.181) and had a better turnover percentage (10.9 vs. 13.8). Denver was led by Michael Porter Jr., who led the team in scoring with 19 points on 7-for-13 shooting.
The Warriors were blown out by the Dallas Mavericks in their last outing, 124-97. They were not able to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (221) finished just under the O/U total of 224. Dallas won the rebounding battle. The Mavericks had 15 offensive rebounds and 53 total rebounds, while the Warriors had seven and 36, respectively. With 17 points on 6-for-12 shooting, Jordan Poole was Golden State’s leading scorer.
Look for Denver to own the offensive glass in this matchup. The Nuggets currently rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.3 percent), while Golden State ranks 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (75.9 percent).
Denver has an excellent 28-12 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 15-19-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Nuggets’ 39 games that accepted bets, 23 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Golden State is 9-33 SU and 19-23 ATS. Similarly to Denver, Warriors games also have a tendency to go under the O/U total (59.5 percent).
After the Warriors won three out of four meetings against the Nuggets last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last matchup, Golden State won 116-102. Golden State’s 0.614 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Denver, who had a rate of 0.411.
Nuggets at Warriors Free Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Under
On the road, Denver is 8-8-2 ATS with 9 overs and 9 unders.
Golden State is 9-11 ATS at home with 13 unders and 7 overs.
Denver is 11-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Golden State is 4-2.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Nuggets are 26-8 and the Warriors are 9-20.
Denver ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (50.0) while Golden State ranks last (42.5).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.2) while the Warriors rank 25th in assists allowed per game (25.3).
Denver ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Golden State ranks 24th (14.6).
The Nuggets rank fifth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Warriors rank 24th (8.2).
Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.3) while Golden State ranks 22nd (17.9).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Warriors rank 23rd (13.9).
Denver ranks sixth in rebounds allowed per game (43.6) while Golden State ranks 25th (47.0).
Neither of these teams shoot many threes. The Nuggets are 27th in the NBA with 29.9 three pointers per game while the Warriors are 28th with 29.2 threes per game.
In its last five outings, Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 5 unders over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.0, up from 4.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 99.0 points per game (5.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (1.4 above their season average).