The Dallas Mavericks (39-27) challenge the Denver Nuggets (43-21) at the American Airlines Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 11, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The Nuggets will be hoping for similar success after covering the closing sportsbook line of 7.5-points against the Milwaukee Bucks in their last game, 109-95. The game’s total points (204) were well under the projected point total of 220.5. Denver’s 10.8 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Milwaukee, who had a rate of 14.8. The Nuggets’ mark was better than their season average of 11.6. Denver received a boost from Paul Millsap, who contributed 20 points and 10 rebounds.
The last time the Mavericks played, they fell to the San Antonio Spurs, 119-109. They failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (228) came in over the projected point total of 219. One of San Antonio’s largest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 12-15 (80.0 percent), while the Mavericks were 8-11 (72.7 percent). With 38 points on 13-for-26 shooting, Luka Doncic was the game’s leading scorer.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Nuggets won the most recent matchup 107-106, covering as 5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 213 points, which was 10.5 points below the projected point total of 223.5 points. The Nuggets’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Mavericks. Denver had a rate of 22.0, while Dallas posted a mark of 17.1. In the victory, Nikola Jokic led all scorers with 33 points.
Denver is 43-21 straight up (SU), but they have a difficult time covering the spread (28-30-6 against the spread (ATS)). A little over half of the Nuggets’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 39-27 SU and 37-28 ATS. Vegas tends to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 40 of their 64 games have ended over the O/U total.
Dallas should have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. The Mavericks currently rank first in offensive efficiency, while Denver ranks 13th in defensive efficiency.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Denver is 13-15-3 ATS on the road with 16 unders and 15 overs.
At home, Dallas is 14-19 ATS with 21 overs and 12 unders.
Dallas is 10-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 15-1.
The Nuggets are 40-16 when they reach 100 points, while the Mavericks are 39-25.
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.6) while Denver ranks 26th (30.3).
The Nuggets rank fifth in points in the paint per game (49.6) while the Mavericks rank 26th (44.4).
Denver ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (12.5) while Dallas ranks 28th (16.8).
The Nuggets rank 10th in steals per game (8.2) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.2).
Denver ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.2) while Dallas ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
The Mavericks rank fifth in rebounds per game (46.9) while the Nuggets rank 19th (44.3).
Denver ranks 13th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while Dallas ranks 26th (14.7).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.6) while the Mavericks rank 14th (24.5).
Dallas ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Denver ranks ninth (4.5).
Over its last five contests, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 3.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 114.6 points per game (1.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.8 points per game (1.3 above their season average).