The Denver Nuggets (41-20) visit Charlotte to take on the Hornets (21-40) in a game that will likely be low scoring. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 5, 2020, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets ATS Prediction
The last time the Nuggets played, they were 16-point favorites and were defeated by the Golden State Warriors, 116-100. The total points for the game (216) were just under the projected point total of 218.5. Golden State made 18 of their 41 three pointers (43.9 percent), while Denver was just 3-20 (15.0 percent). Nikola Jokic played well for Denver, putting up 16 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists.
The Hornets lost a close one to the San Antonio Spurs in their last matchup, 104-103, but were able to cover as 4-point underdogs at Sugarhouse Sports. The game’s total points (207) were under the O/U total of 211. San Antonio’s 10.1 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Charlotte, who had a rate of 15.8. The Spurs’ mark was better than their season average of 10.8, while the Hornets’ was above the 11.1 mark opponents have averaged against San Antonio this season. Charlotte’s Terry Rozier put together a solid performance, leading the team in scoring with 20 points on 8-for-18 shooting.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, the Hornets lost 100-86, unable to cover as 11.5-point underdogs. Rozier scored a game-high 20 points and also recorded nine assists. The game finished with a total of 186 points, which was 24 points below the projected point total of 210 points. The Nuggets had a better free throw rate (0.190 vs. 0.099) and had a better turnover percentage (10.9 vs. 13.8).
Denver has a solid 41-20 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 27-28-6 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Nuggets games, with 32 unders compared to 29 overs.
Meanwhile, Charlotte owns records of 21-40 SU and 30-29-2 ATS. Games involving the Hornets also have a slight tendency to go under the total (54.1 percent).
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Charlotte ranks 30th in possessions per game (98.5) and Denver is 28th (100.2). Moreover, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 percent), while the Hornets rank 29th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.6 percent).
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets Pick
NBA Prediction: ATS Winner – Hornets, O/U – Under
Betting Trends
On the road, Denver is 13-13-3 ATS with 15 unders and 14 overs.
Charlotte is 12-14-2 ATS at home with 16 unders and 12 overs.
In contests where they allow less than 100 points, Denver is 14-1 and Charlotte is 7-1.
When reaching 100 points, the Hornets are 16-22 and the Nuggets are 38-15.
Denver averages 26.5 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Charlotte ranks last in assists allowed per game (26.5).
The Nuggets rank fifth in points in the paint per game (50.0) while the Hornets rank 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (50.7).
Denver ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (42.8) while Charlotte ranks 22nd (46.2).
The Nuggets rank 11th in steals per game (8.0) while the Hornets rank 27th (6.5).
Charlotte ranks 12th in three pointers attempted per game (34.2) while Denver ranks 26th (30.1).
The Nuggets average 14.3 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Hornets rank 17th in second chance points allowed per game (13.2).
Denver ranks 18th in blocks per game (4.7) while Charlotte ranks 25th (4.2).
The Hornets rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.9) while the Nuggets rank sixth (12.4).
Over its last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 0.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 3.2 points.
During their last five games, the Hornets have scored an average of 94.8 points per game (7.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.6 points per game (6.8 below their season average).