The Utah Jazz (31-13) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (28-16) to Vivint Smart Home Arena as they try to extend their eight-game home winning streak. The game is scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 25, 2020.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 226 points with Utah set as a 3-point favorite at William Hill Sportsbook.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz ATS Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last game, they covered the 7-point spread against the Portland Trail Blazers, 133-125. The game’s total points (258) came in well over the projected point total of 232.5. The Mavericks had a turnover percentage of 7.2 (better than their season average of 10.9), while the Trail Blazers had a free throw rate of 0.132 (below their season average of 0.196). Dallas was led by Luka Doncic, who led the team in scoring with 27 points on 11-for-25 shooting.
The Jazz won big over the Golden State Warriors in their last contest, 129-96, comfortably covering as 9-point favorites. The total points for the game (225) finished over the projected point total of 220.5. Utah’s 36.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Golden State, who had a mark of 21.2. The Jazz’s mark was above their season average of 20.8. With 22 points and 15 rebounds, Rudy Gobert played well for Utah.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Utah ranks 28th in possessions per game (100.4) and Dallas is 21st (101.3). Additionally, the sharp-shooting offense of the Mavericks ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage (0.547), while the Jazz are third-best in the league at effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502).
Dallas heads into the contest with records of 28-16 straight up (SU) and 26-18 against the spread (ATS). Of the Mavericks’ 44 games, 27 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Utah is 31-13 SU and 23-19-2 ATS. Games featuring the Jazz have a slight tendency to go over the total (52.3 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Tim Hardaway Jr. (17 points) has been stellar for the Mavericks while Gobert (22 points,15.0 rebounds,2.2 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Jazz.
After the Jazz won three out of four games against the Mavericks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, Utah won 125-109. The Jazz knocked down 29 of their 33 free throws (87.9 percent) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (19.0 vs. 15.1).
Mavericks at Jazz ATS Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
Dallas is 16-4 ATS on the road with 13 overs and 7 unders.
Utah is 11-8-1 ATS at home with 11 overs and 9 unders.
Dallas is 7-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Utah is 12-1.
The Mavericks are 28-14 when they reach the century mark, while the Jazz are 30-8.
Dallas ranks first in second chance points per game (15.0) while Utah ranks 28th (11.6).
The Jazz rank 13th in fast break points allowed per game (12.6) while the Mavericks rank last (16.5).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Utah ranks 15th (33.1).
The Mavericks rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Jazz rank 13th (5.0).
Utah ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.0) while Dallas ranks 14th (45.3).
The Mavericks rank 15th in assists per game (24.3) while the Jazz rank 25th (22.2).
Utah averages 48.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Dallas ranks 20th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.1).
The Mavericks rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while the Jazz rank 12th (16.8).
Neither of these teams are great at stealing the ball. Dallas is 28th in the NBA with 6.3 steals per game while Utah is 29th with 6.0 steals per game.
In its last five outings, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Utah is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.8, up from 7.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 124.0 points per game (12.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (0.2 above their season average).
