The Portland Trail Blazers (19-26) take on the Dallas Mavericks (27-16) at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The game begins at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers ATS Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last contest, they were 2.5-point favorites and fell to the Los Angeles Clippers, 110-107. The game’s combined points (217) came in under the projected point total of 231.5. One of Los Angeles’ largest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They had 33 free throw attempts, while Dallas had 24. Luka Doncic was the game’s leading scorer with 36 points on 12-for-26 shooting.
The Trail Blazers defeated the Golden State Warriors in their last matchup, 129-124, but failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (253) came in well over the O/U total of 222. Portland was effective at getting and making free throws. The Trail Blazers made 27 of their 30 free throws (90.0 percent), while the Warriors were 19-22 (86.4 percent). Damian Lillard was the top scorer from either team with 61 points on 17-for-37 shooting from the field.
Portland should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Portland ranks third in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while Dallas forces the fewest turnovers (11.6 percent). Furthermore, the Mavericks rank first in offensive efficiency (114.8), while the Trail Blazers rank 22nd in defensive efficiency (110.0).
Dallas holds records of 27-16 straight up (SU) and 25-18 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Mavericks are playing, as 26 of their 43 games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Portland owns records of 19-26 SU and 16-27-2 ATS. Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Trail Blazers games, with 22 overs compared to 22 unders.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Tim Hardaway Jr. (19 points,5.8 rebounds) has been fantastic for the Mavericks while Lillard (30 points,7.4 assists) has made great contributions to the Trail Blazers.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Mavericks won the most recent matchup 120-112, covering as 8-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 232 points, which was just 4 points above the projected point total of 228 points. Dallas did a fantastic job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (22-28; 78.6 percent). Portland, on the other hand, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.571 vs. 0.551). Doncic was the game’s leading scorer with 35 points.
Mavericks at Trail Blazers Betting Pick
NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Over
On the road, Dallas is 15-4 ATS with 12 overs and 7 unders.
Portland is 6-13-1 ATS at home with 12 overs and 8 unders.
In contests where they allow less than 100 points, Dallas is 7-0 and Portland is 4-0.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Trail Blazers are 19-20 and the Mavericks are 27-14.
Dallas averages 15.0 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. Portland ranks last in second chance points allowed per game (15.6).
The Mavericks average 47.6 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Trail Blazers rank 29th in rebounds allowed per game (48.5).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.0) while Portland ranks 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (34.8).
The Mavericks rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Trail Blazers rank 18th (5.2).
Dallas ranks 15th in assists per game (24.2) while Portland ranks last (19.7).
The Trail Blazers average 12.8 fast break points per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (16.3).
Dallas ranks 23rd in points in the paint per game (45.2) while Portland ranks 28th (43.5).
The Trail Blazers rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while the Mavericks rank seventh (15.2).
Dallas ranks 28th in steals per game (6.3) while Portland ranks last (5.9).
In its last five outings, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Portland is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.8, up from 7.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 115.8 points per game (3.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.4 points per game (2.3 above their season average).