The Dallas Mavericks (18-9) will try to continue their six-game road winning streak in a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers (20-9) at Wells Fargo Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 20, 2019, and will air on ESPN.
Philadelphia is a 7.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 213.5 points.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Free Prediction
The Mavericks are hoping to rebound after not being able to cover as 2.5-point favorites in their 109-103 loss to the Boston Celtics in their last contest. The total points for the game (212) were just under the projected point total of 212.5. Boston’s 30.4 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Dallas, who had a mark of 20.0. The Celtics’ mark was above their season average of 22.7. Kristaps Porzingis was Dallas’ high scorer with 23 points on 8-for-19 shooting.
The last time the 76ers played, they lost to the Miami Heat, 108-104, despite being 9-point favorites. The total points for the game (212) were over the projected point total of 205. Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Philadelphia. The Heat had a rate of 0.541 (below their season average of 0.546), while the 76ers posted a mark of 0.489. With 22 points on 8-for-19 shooting, Joel Embiid was Philadelphia’s high scorer.
After splitting two games last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, the Mavericks won 122-102. Dallas had a better turnover percentage (5.2 vs. 10.1). Philadelphia, meanwhile, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (24-32; 75.0 percent).
Dallas comes into the contest with records of 18-9 straight up (SU) and 16-11 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 63.0 percent of their games have ended over the projected point total.
Philadelphia has a respectable 20-9 SU record, but they have trouble covering the spread (13-13-3 ATS). Contrary to Dallas, 76ers games have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (48.3 percent).
The sharp-shooting offense of Dallas (second in the league with an effective field goal percentage 0.546) will go head-to-head against the mid-tier defense of Philadelphia (12th in effective field goal percentage allowed 0.510). The Mavericks should have the edge on that side of the ball.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Philadelphia 76ers ATS Pick
Free Pick: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
Dallas is 10-2 ATS on the road with 8 overs and 4 unders.
Philadelphia is 7-6-2 ATS at home with 8 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
Dallas is 3-0 when they allow below 100 points, while Philadelphia is 10-0.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Mavericks are 18-8 and the 76ers are 17-5.
Philadelphia ranks second in steals per game (8.7) while Dallas ranks 28th (6.3).
The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (40.9) while the 76ers rank 26th (29.5).
Philadelphia ranks eighth in fast break points allowed per game (12.4) while Dallas ranks 29th (15.8).
The Mavericks rank first in second chance points per game (15.1) while the 76ers rank 20th (12.6).
Philadelphia ranks fourth in blocks per game (6.0) while Dallas ranks 21st (4.6).
The Mavericks rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while the 76ers rank 15th (17.2).
Philadelphia ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.0) while Dallas ranks 12th (45.3).
The 76ers rank fifth in assists per game (26.4) while the Mavericks rank 12th (24.6).
Philadelphia ranks 10th in points in the paint per game (48.3) while Dallas ranks 14th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.8).
In its last five outings, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Philadelphia is 1-2-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 8.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the 76ers have scored an average of 104.2 points per game (4.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.4 points per game (1.2 above their season average).
