The Oklahoma City Thunder (28-19) put their five-game winning streak on the line when they meet the Dallas Mavericks (28-17) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 27, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – Southwest.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction
The Mavericks are hoping to rebound after failing to cover as 3.5-point underdogs in their 112-107 loss to the Utah Jazz in their last contest. The game’s combined points (219) were under the projected point total of 227. Utah’s 0.187 free throw rate was their largest strength over Dallas, who had a rate of 0.072. The Jazz’s mark was below their season average of 0.208, while the Mavericks’ was below their season average of 0.207. Luka Doncic led Dallas in scoring with 25 points on 11-for-25 shooting.
The last time the Thunder were in action, they defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves, 113-104, despite being 2-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (217) came in under the O/U total of 225.5. The Thunder knocked down 24 of their 25 free throws (96.0 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.556 (above their season average of 0.534). With 25 points and 10 assists, Chris Paul put together a good game for Oklahoma City.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, the Mavericks lost 106-101, unable to cover as 2.5-point favorites. Doncic scored a game-high 35 points and also recorded 10 rebounds and seven assists. The game finished with a total of 207 points, which was 10.5 points below the projected point total of 217.5 points. The Thunder had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (36.0 vs. 30.9) and had a better free throw rate (0.242 vs. 0.215).
Dallas heads into the game with records of 28-17 straight up (SU) and 26-19 against the spread (ATS). Of the Mavericks’ 45 games, 27 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 28-19 SU and 31-15-1 ATS. Contrary to Dallas, games including the Thunder have finished under the projected point total 53.2 percent of the time.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Tim Hardaway Jr. (17 points) has been stellar for the Mavericks while Paul (22 points,5.4 assists,1.2 steals) has made great contributions to the Thunder.
Dallas may have a difficult time creating turnovers. Oklahoma City ranks ninth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.1 percent), while Dallas forces the first-fewest turnovers (11.6 percent).
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
On the road, Dallas is 16-5 ATS with 13 overs and 8 unders.
Oklahoma City is 13-10-1 ATS at home with 13 overs and 11 unders.
Oklahoma City is 7-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 7-0.
When reaching 100 points, the Mavericks are 28-15 and the Thunder are 27-12.
Oklahoma City ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (10.4) while Dallas ranks last (16.3).
The Mavericks rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Thunder rank 29th (10.6).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Oklahoma City ranks 27th (29.8).
The Mavericks rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.4) while the Thunder rank 23rd (43.3).
Dallas ranks 14th in assists per game (24.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (21.9).
The Thunder rank 19th in steals per game (7.4) while the Mavericks rank 28th (6.3).
Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Oklahoma City ranks sixth (4.3).
The Thunder rank 20th in points off turnovers per game (16.5) while the Mavericks rank 25th (15.4).
Oklahoma City ranks 21st in points in the paint per game (46.6) while Dallas ranks 25th (45.3).
Over its last five outings, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 6.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 120.8 points per game (10.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.4 points per game (0.3 above their season average).
