The New Orleans Pelicans (6-14) will try to snap their five-game losing streak when they clash with the Dallas Mavericks (13-6) at Smoothie King Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019.
Dallas opened as a 3.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 233.5 points.
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last game, they beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 114-100, as 6-point underdogs. The total points for the game (214) finished under the O/U total of 222.5. The Mavericks, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.7, had a solid mark of 30.8, while the Lakers had a turnover percentage of 15.3 (above the 10.9 mark opponents have averaged against Dallas this season). With 27 points on 10-for-23 shooting, Luka Doncic led Dallas in scoring.
The Pelicans lost a close one to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last matchup, 107-104, despite being 2.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (211) were well under the projected point total of 226.5. Getting to the free throw line was one of Oklahoma City’s biggest strengths. They had 26 free throw attempts, while New Orleans had just 10. With 26 points on 10-for-19 shooting, Jrue Holiday was the top scorer from either team.
New Orleans could have difficulty getting to the free throw line in this battle. The Pelicans rank 26th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.170, while Dallas ranks fourth in FTA rate allowed (0.171). Also, the top-ranked offense of the Mavericks (offensive efficiency of 114.2) will try to take advantage of the 24th-ranked defense of the Pelicans (defensive efficiency of 111.1).
Dallas heads into the contest with records of 13-6 straight up (SU) and 11-8 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 63.2 percent of their games have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans owns records of 6-14 SU and 8-11-1 ATS. There does not appear to be a trend for games involving the Pelicans in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Doncic registered a triple-double. He put up 25 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists and the Mavericks defeated the Pelicans 123-116, covering as 2-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 239 points, which was 12 points above the projected point total of 227 points. The Mavericks knocked down 19 of their 26 free throws (73.1 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (9.5 vs. 11.8).
Mavericks at Pelicans Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
New Orleans averages 15.3 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Dallas ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (15.5).
Dallas averages 46.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks 17th in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (52.4).
The Mavericks rank third in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while the Pelicans rank 10th (4.5).
New Orleans is 5-5 ATS at home, while Dallas is 7-2 ATS on the road.
Over its last five outings, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.4, up from 8.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (5.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 118.4 points per game (0.5 below their season average).