The Dallas Mavericks (17-8) travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks (24-3) in a matchup that pits sensational offense against superb defense. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 16, 2019, and will air on NBATV.
Milwaukee opened as an 11-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 227 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction
The Mavericks failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites in their 122-118 loss to the Miami Heat in their last game. The combined points for the game (240) were well over the O/U total of 215.5. Miami made good use of their 34 trips to the free throw line, making 28 of them (82.4 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, was just 11-17 (64.7 percent). Kristaps Porzingis put together a good game for Dallas, putting up 22 points and 14 rebounds.
In the Bucks’ last outing, they beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, 125-108, covering as 14.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (233) came in over the projected point total of 222. The Bucks made 19 of their 26 free throws (73.1 percent), while the Cavaliers had a turnover percentage of 15.7 (above the 12.4 mark opponents have averaged against Milwaukee this season). Khris Middleton was the game’s top scorer with 24 points on 8-for-12 shooting from the field.
This meeting figures to be a high-scoring affair as a pair of the NBA’s best offenses go head-to-head. Milwaukee currently ranks second with 113.6 points per 100 possessions and Dallas is first (115.3). Moreover, the Mavericks rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.0 percent), while the Bucks rank second in defensive rebounding percentage (80.6 percent).
Dallas comes into the game with records of 17-8 straight up (SU) and 15-10 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Mavericks are playing, as 64.0 percent of their contests have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 24-3 SU and 15-12 ATS. Games involving the Bucks also tend to go over the total (55.6 percent).
After the Bucks won both games against the Mavericks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, Milwaukee won 122-107. The Bucks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.3 vs. 18.0) and had a better turnover percentage (10.9 vs. 12.8).
Mavericks at Bucks Odds Pick
Free Prediction: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Milwaukee ranks seventh in blocks per game (5.9) while Dallas ranks 25th (4.4).
Milwaukee ranks first in second chance points allowed per game (10.6) while Dallas ranks 15th (13.0).
The Mavericks rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.9) while the Bucks rank 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
Milwaukee is 8-6 ATS at home, while Dallas is 9-2 ATS on the road.
In its last five contests, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 9.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 121.6 points per game (0.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.2 points per game (2.4 below their season average).