The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets will close down their three-game regular-season series on Wednesday night, so here’s the best betting pick for their Southwest Division showdown at Toyota Center in Houston.
These two foes split their previous two encounters, and the Rockets dismantled the Mavs as 7-point road underdogs in the last one, 133-108. It was way back in January, as well as the Mavericks’ 113-100 victory at Toyota Center as 4-point favorites. According to BetMGM Sportsbook, Dallas is a 6-point fave for Wednesday’s clash.
The Mavs aim for their fifth straight victory on the road
The Dallas Mavericks (28-21; 25-24 ATS) are undefeated in five consecutive outings including their previous four showings away from home. They are coming off a 111-103 home win over the Utah Jazz this past Monday, as the Mavs overcame Kristaps Porzingis’ absence and stunned the best team in the Western Conference.
Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas, accounting for 31 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. The Mavs used just eight players in their rotation, and Jalen Brunson and Tim Hardaway Jr. combined for 36 points off the bench.
Dallas is still sitting at the seventh spot of the Western Conference standings, but the Mavs are now big three games ahead of the eighth-seeded Memphis. They rank 11th in the NBA in offensive efficiency (114.5 points per 100 possessions) and 17th in defensive efficiency (112.4). Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful to play Wednesday against Houston, as well as J.J. Redick and Trey Burke.
The Rockets dropped five in a row
The Houston Rockets (13-37; 16-34 ATS) are riding a five-game losing streak once again. Just a few weeks ago, they’ve been on a 20-game losing spin, but the Rockets are still half a game ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves, sitting at the 14th spot of the Western Conference table.
Houston is coming off a narrow 133-130 home defeat to the Phoenix Suns last Monday. The Rockets battled bravely against the No. 2 seed in the West, covering a massive 14-point spread, but they couldn’t pull off an upset down the stretch. Christian Wood had 23 points, while Kevin Porter Jr. posted a line of 20 points, nine boards, and eight assists.
The Rockets miss four players due to injuries including Eric Gordon and Danuel House, while John Wall is questionable to play Wednesday. Houston scores just 106.3 points per 100 possessions (27th in the NBA) and surrenders 112.6 in a return (20th).
Trends:
Dallas:
- 5-0 ATS in the last five games overall
- 6-1 ATS in the last seven road contests
- 6-3 ATS in the last nine games against Houston
Houston:
- 5-15 ATS in the last 20 games overall
- 1-5 ATS in the last six home tilts against Dallas
- 0-5 ATS in the last five games against the Southwest Division
The Mavericks have been playing very well lately, especially on the defensive end, so I’m backing them to stay on the winning track and cover at Toyota Center. Over their last five outings, the Mavs have been holding their opponents below 109 points while covering the spread on all five occasions.
On the other side, the Rockets have yielded 120 or more points in four of their previous five games overall, going 2-3 ATS in the process. I don’t think they’ll find a way to slow down Luka Doncic and the Mavs’ offense.
Pick: Take Dallas Mavericks -6.0 at -110
The Total:
While the Rockets continue to struggle on both sides of the ball, the Mavericks, as I’ve mentioned, have improved recently. Dallas’ defense has been terrific lately, so it’s no strange that six of the Mavericks’ last seven games went in the under.
The over is 4-1 in the last five encounters between Dallas and Houston, but I’m going with the under in this one. I’m looking for the Mavericks to continue with their strong defensive performance and wouldn’t be surprised if they completely shut down the Rockets.
Pick: Go under 223.5 points at -110
