The Dallas Mavericks (29-18) head to Houston to take on the Rockets (29-18) in a game that has the potential to be high-scoring. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 31, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Free Prediction
The Mavericks were unable to cover as 7-point favorites in their 133-104 loss to the Phoenix Suns in their last outing. The game’s combined points (237) finished over the projected point total of 228.5. Phoenix made 12 of their 28 three pointers (42.9 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, was 7-33 (21.2 percent). Luka Doncic led Dallas in scoring with 21 points on 7-for-15 shooting.
In the Rockets’ previous outing, they lost to the Portland Trail Blazers, 125-112, despite being 5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (237) were under the projected point total of 243. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Portland’s biggest advantages. They had 27 free throw attempts, while Houston had 18. Russell Westbrook put together a solid performance for Houston, leading both teams in scoring with 39 points on 16-for-29 shooting.
It might turn into a shootout as two of the league’s top offenses face off. Houston ranks third with 111.5 points per 100 possessions and Dallas is first (114.6).
Dallas comes into the contest with records of 29-18 straight up (SU) and 27-20 against the spread (ATS). Mavericks games tend to finish over the total (59.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 29-18 SU and 23-24 ATS. Contrary to Dallas, Rockets games have typically gone under the O/U total (55.3 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Doncic scored a game-high 41 points and the Mavericks, who were 5.5-point underdogs, beat the Rockets 137-123. He also put up 10 assists and six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 260 points, which was 31 points above the projected point total of 229 points. Dallas had a better effective field goal percentage (0.564 vs. 0.510). Houston, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.6 vs. 23.5).
Mavericks at Rockets Free Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Dallas is 17-5 ATS on the road with 13 overs and 9 unders.
At home, Houston is 11-11 ATS with 11 overs and 11 unders.
Dallas is 8-0 when they allow below 100 points, while Houston is 3-0.
The Mavericks and Rockets are both 29-16 when they reach the century mark.
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Houston ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (35.7).
The Rockets average 14.4 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Mavericks rank last in fast break points allowed per game (16.1).
Dallas ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while Houston ranks 24th (18.1).
The Mavericks rank second in second chance points per game (14.8) while the Rockets rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.3) while Houston ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.2).
The Rockets rank 12th in steals per game (7.9) while the Mavericks rank 28th (6.2).
Dallas ranks 10th in assists allowed per game (23.5) while Houston ranks 25th (25.6).
The Mavericks rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while the Rockets rank 13th (5.0).
Houston averages 47.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks 16th in the league. Dallas ranks 19th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.9).
In its last five outings, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks have been outscored by an average of 3.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Dallas has defeated opponents by an average of 6.1 points.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 120.0 points per game (1.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 117.6 points per game (3.0 above their season average).