The Detroit Pistons (10-14) challenge the Dallas Mavericks (16-7) at Mexico City Arena. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 12, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Detroit.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 220.5 points with Dallas opening as a 5-point favorite.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons Free Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last contest, they were 8.5-point favorites and lost to the Sacramento Kings, 110-106. The game’s combined points (216) finished just over the O/U total of 215. Sacramento’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Dallas. The Kings had a rate of 8.2 (better than their season average of 13.6), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 11.8. Luka Doncic had a good game for Dallas, finishing with 27 points, eight assists and seven rebounds.
The Pistons edged the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing, 105-103, covering as 1-point favorites. The combined points for the game (208) came in well under the O/U total of 227. Detroit was effective at getting and making free throws. The Pistons made 22 of their 27 free throws (81.5 percent), while the Pelicans were just 15-22 (68.2 percent). Derrick Rose led Detroit in scoring with 21 points on 9-for-17 shooting from the field.
After splitting two games last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. The Pistons won the most recent game 93-89. Detroit did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (18-23; 78.3 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (9.6 vs. 10.3).
Dallas heads into the contest with records of 16-7 straight up (SU) and 14-9 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers have a tendency to place the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 60.9 percent of their games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Detroit is 10-14 SU and 10-12-2 ATS. Of the Pistons’ 24 games, 13 have finished over the O/U total.
The offensive glass could be a solid edge for Detroit in this showdown. The Pistons rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage (23.4 percent), while Dallas ranks 18th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent). Moreover, the Mavericks rank first in turnover percentage (12.0 percent), while the Pistons rank 25th in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.2 percent).
Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons ATS Pick
NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
In contests where they hold opponents below 100 points, Detroit is 4-0 and Dallas is 3-0.
The Mavericks are 16-6 when they score above 100 points, while the Pistons are 9-11.
Dallas ranks fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.2) while Detroit ranks 26th (19.1).
The Mavericks rank third in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Pistons rank 23rd (8.3).
Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.7) while Detroit ranks 23rd (43.2).
The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (40.5) while the Pistons rank 18th (31.5).
Dallas ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Detroit ranks 16th (5.0).
The Pistons rank 15th in fast break points allowed per game (13.5) while the Mavericks rank 26th (15.1).
Dallas ranks third in second chance points per game (15.2) while Detroit ranks 13th (13.4).
The Pistons rank 10th in points in the paint per game (48.2) while the Mavericks rank 17th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.1).
Dallas averages 24.3 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Detroit ranks 19th in assists allowed per game (24.9).
In its last five outings, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.8, up from 9.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (6.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.6 points per game (3.6 below their season average).