The Atlanta Hawks (16-41) challenge the Dallas Mavericks (34-22) at State Farm Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 22, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – Southwest.
Dallas is a 6-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 239 points at DraftKings Indiana Sportsbook.
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks ATS Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last contest, they defeated the Orlando Magic, 122-106, as 8.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (228) came in just over the projected point total of 226. Dallas was effective at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Mavericks made 21 of their 26 free throws (80.8 percent), while the Magic were 15-19 (78.9 percent). Dallas was lifted by Luka Doncic, who was the top scorer from either team with 33 points on 10-for-21 shooting.
The Hawks were victorious over the Miami Heat in their last contest, 129-124, despite being 6-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (253) came in well over the O/U total of 229. Atlanta’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Miami. The Hawks had a rate of 0.576 (above their season average of 0.512), while the Heat posted a mark of 0.464 (below their season average of 0.545). Trae Young was the top scorer from either team with 50 points on 12-for-25 shooting from the field.
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 27 points and the Mavericks beat the Hawks 123-100, covering as 4.5-point favorites. He also recorded eight assists. The game finished with a total of 223 points, which was 13 points below the projected point total of 236 points. The Mavericks had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.574 vs. 0.462) and had a better turnover percentage (8.2 vs. 9.9).
Dallas holds records of 34-22 straight up (SU) and 32-23 against the spread (ATS). Mavericks matchups tend to finish over the total (63.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Atlanta owns records of 16-41 SU and 26-30-1 ATS. Coinciding with Dallas, Hawks games also have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (57.9 percent).
It will be a matchup of contrasting paces as the up-and-down Hawks will look to push the more grind-it-out Mavericks. The Hawks currently rank third in possessions per game while the Mavericks are 21st. Also, the top-ranked offense of the Mavericks (offensive efficiency of 115.4) will square off against the 28th-ranked defense of the Hawks (defensive efficiency of 112.2).
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks Odds Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Dallas is 20-6 ATS on the road with 17 overs and 9 unders.
Atlanta is 16-10-1 ATS at home with 15 overs and 12 unders.
When allowing below 100 points, Dallas is 8-0 and Atlanta is 4-0.
The Hawks are 16-34 when they reach 100 points, while the Mavericks are 34-20.
Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Atlanta ranks 29th (6.3).
The Mavericks rank third in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Hawks rank 27th in second chance points allowed per game (14.9).
Dallas ranks sixth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Atlanta ranks 29th (19.9).
The Mavericks rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.1) while the Hawks rank 27th in rebounds allowed per game (47.1).
Atlanta ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (50.3) while Dallas ranks 26th (44.5).
The Mavericks rank ninth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Hawks rank 28th (9.0).
Atlanta averages 12.2 fast break points per game, which ranks 18th in the league. Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (16.5).
The Hawks average 35.5 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Mavericks rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (34.0).
Dallas averages 24.3 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 18th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Over its last five outings, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 5 overs.
Atlanta is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.2, up from 6.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 121.4 points per game (10.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 126.6 points per game (7.6 above their season average).