It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the San Antonio Spurs (26-36) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (39-26) to the AT&T Center. The game begins at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 10, 2020.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Free Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last game, they were 6.5-point favorites at Betrivers Illinois and fell to the Indiana Pacers, 112-109. The combined points for the game (221) were just over the O/U total of 219. Indiana’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Dallas. The Pacers had a rate of 0.568 (above their season average of 0.533), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.505. Luka Doncic was the top scorer from either team with 36 points on 13-for-26 shooting.
The Spurs lost a close one to the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game, 132-129, despite being 4.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (261) were well over the projected point total of 226.5. Cleveland won the rebounding battle. The Cavaliers had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. six), defensive rebounds (46 vs. 38) and total rebounds (60 vs. 44). San Antonio’s Dejounte Murray put up 17 points, seven rebounds and six assists in the game.
San Antonio should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. San Antonio ranks first in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 11.6 percent), while Dallas forces the fewest turnovers (11.4 percent). Furthermore, the top-ranked offense of the Mavericks (offensive efficiency of 114.6) will attempt to exploit the 25th-ranked defense of the Spurs (defensive efficiency of 111.7).
Dallas holds records of 39-26 straight up (SU) and 37-28 against the spread (ATS). Of the Mavericks’ 65 games, 40 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, San Antonio owns records of 26-36 SU and 23-37-2 ATS. Games involving the Spurs also have typically finished over the total (61.3 percent).
The Mavericks have won all three games against the Spurs this season, including a 109-103 victory in their last matchup. Dallas covered as a 4-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 212 points, which was 21 points below the projected point total of 233 points. Dallas had a better free throw rate (0.233 vs. 0.152). San Antonio, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.5 vs. 10.6). Despite the loss, DeMar DeRozan had a standout performance in the game, producing 27 points, nine assists and eight rebounds.
Mavericks at Spurs Pick
Free NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
Dallas is 23-9 ATS on the road with 19 overs and 13 unders.
At home, San Antonio is 9-20 ATS with 16 overs, 12 unders and 1 push.
When allowing below 100 points, San Antonio is 2-0 and Dallas is 10-0.
The Spurs are 26-31 when they score over 100 points, while the Mavericks are 39-24.
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.5) while San Antonio ranks 28th (28.7).
The Mavericks rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.2) while the Spurs rank 28th (10.8).
Dallas ranks ninth in assists allowed per game (23.6) while San Antonio ranks 27th (25.8).
The Mavericks average 47.0 rebounds per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Spurs rank 21st in rebounds allowed per game (45.7).
San Antonio ranks 14th in fast break points allowed per game (13.3) while Dallas ranks 27th (16.7).
The Spurs rank first in steals allowed per game (6.7) while the Mavericks rank eighth (7.0).
Dallas ranks third in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while San Antonio ranks seventh (4.4).
The Mavericks rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while the Spurs rank sixth (14.9).
Dallas ranks 26th in points in the paint per game (44.5) while San Antonio ranks 29th (43.5).
Over its last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.8, up from 6.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 115.6 points per game (2.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 120.6 points per game (5.6 above their season average).