The Oklahoma City Thunder (17-15) challenge the Dallas Mavericks (21-11) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 31, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Southwest.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction
In the Mavericks’ last game, they were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers, 108-95, and were not able to cover as 5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (203) were well under the projected point total of 224. Los Angeles made good use of their 28 trips to the free throw line, making 23 of them (82.1 percent). Dallas, on the other hand, was 18-20 (90.0 percent). Luka Doncic was Dallas’ leading scorer with 19 points on 5-for-14 shooting.
The Thunder barely escaped the Toronto Raptors in their last game, 98-97, despite being 5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (195) finished under the O/U total of 209. Oklahoma City’s 0.256 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Toronto, who had a rate of 0.145. The Thunder’s mark was above their season average of 0.230, while the Raptors’ was below their season average of 0.213. With 25 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, Chris Paul put together a good outing for Oklahoma City.
After the Mavericks won three out of four matchups against the Thunder last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the most recent matchup, Dallas won 106-103. Dallas’ 0.517 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Oklahoma City, who had a rate of 0.444.
Dallas heads into the game with records of 21-11 straight up (SU) and 19-13 against the spread (ATS). Mavericks games have typically finished over the projected point total (62.5 percent).
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 17-15 SU and 19-12-1 ATS. Contrary to Dallas, Thunder games have typically finished under the O/U total (59.4 percent).
Dallas figures to have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Mavericks currently rank first in offensive efficiency, while Oklahoma City ranks 14th in defensive efficiency.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Free Pick
Free NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
On the road, Dallas is 13-3 ATS with 11 overs and 5 unders.
Oklahoma City is 9-7-1 ATS at home with 9 unders and 8 overs.
Oklahoma City is 6-3 when they allow below 100 points, while Dallas is 5-0.
The Mavericks are 21-9 when they reach 100 points, while the Thunder are 16-8.
Dallas ranks third in second chance points per game (14.8) while Oklahoma City ranks last (10.3).
The Thunder rank second in fast break points allowed per game (11.5) while the Mavericks rank 29th (16.4).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Oklahoma City ranks 26th (29.5).
The Mavericks rank third in rebounds per game (48.0) while the Thunder rank 25th (42.5).
Dallas ranks 12th in assists per game (24.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (21.6).
The Thunder rank 17th in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while the Mavericks rank 26th (15.5).
Oklahoma City ranks 19th in steals per game (7.6) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.7).
The Mavericks lead the NBA with 3.8 blocks allowed per game while the Thunder are fifth with 4.3 blocks allowed per game.
Oklahoma City ranks 21st in points in the paint per game (46.1) while Dallas ranks 25th (44.4).
Over its last five outings, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.4, down from 7.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (0.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.8 points per game (1.7 below their season average).