The Dallas Mavericks (6-3) travel to Boston to play the Celtics (7-1) in what should be a high-scoring game. The game gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, November 11, 2019.
Boston is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 217.5 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Free Prediction
The Mavericks come in on a high note after comfortably covering the 5.5-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in their last matchup, 138-122. The total points for the game (260) came in well over the O/U total of 222.5. The Mavericks knocked down 16 of their 20 free throws (80.0 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 29.3 (above their season average of 23.1). Dallas rallied around Luka Doncic, who was the top scorer from either team with 24 points on 9-for-16 shooting.
In the Celtics’ last game, they easily got past the San Antonio Spurs, 135-115, despite being 2-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (250) finished well over the projected point total of 218.5. The Celtics forced 15 turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.585 (above their season average of 0.506). Jaylen Brown was the top scorer from either team with 30 points on 10-for-18 shooting from the field.
These two teams split two games last season. The Celtics won the most recent game 114-93. The Celtics had a better offensive rebounding percentage (26.9 vs. 22.0) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.547 vs. 0.449).
Dallas has a respectable 6-3 straight up (SU) record, but they have difficulty covering the spread (4-5 against the spread (ATS)). Vegas is known to place the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 66.7 percent of their games have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Boston owns records of 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS. Unlike Dallas, Celtics games have typically gone under the total (62.5 percent).
This contest figures to be a high-scoring affair as two of the league’s premier offenses clash. Dating back to the 2018-19 season, Boston ranks fifth with 109.5 points per 100 possessions and Dallas is first (107.7).
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Odds Pick
NBA Prediction: Mavericks +3.5
Boston is 22-4 when they allow less than 100 points, while Dallas is 11-4.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Mavericks are 38-40 and the Celtics are 59-27.
Boston ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Dallas ranks 20th (7.9).
The Celtics rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while the Mavericks rank 17th (15.8).
Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (45.6) while Boston ranks 19th (45.0).
The Mavericks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (36.9) while the Celtics rank 18th in three pointers allowed per game (33.8).
Boston ranks eighth in fast break points per game (15.9) while Dallas ranks 22nd in fast break points allowed per game (16.6).
The Mavericks average 13.0 second chance points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Celtics rank 18th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
Boston averages 25.6 assists per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Dallas ranks 15th in assists allowed per game (24.5).
The Celtics rank third in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while the Mavericks rank ninth (4.5).