Offense meets defense when the Miami Heat (32-14) welcome the Boston Celtics (30-15) to AmericanAirlines Arena. The game is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Free Prediction
The last time the Celtics played, they were defeated by the New Orleans Pelicans, 123-108, and failed to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (231) were just under the O/U total of 234. New Orleans won the rebounding battle. The Pelicans had more offensive rebounds (18 vs. seven), defensive rebounds (36 vs. 30) and total rebounds (54 vs. 37). Kemba Walker was the top scorer from either team with 35 points on 10-for-24 shooting.
The Heat easily got past the Orlando Magic in their last game, 113-92, despite being 2.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (205) were under the projected point total of 219. Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Orlando. The Heat had a rate of 0.620 (above their season average of 0.548), while the Magic posted a mark of 0.433 (below their season average of 0.491). With 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, Miami’s Bam Adebayo led the way with his second triple-double of the year.
This is the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, the Heat lost 112-93, unable to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 37 points and also had six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 205 points, which was just 3.5 points below the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Celtics made 26 of their 32 free throws (81.3 percent) and had a much better turnover percentage (9.7 vs. 17.6).
Boston comes into the contest with records of 30-15 straight up (SU) and 26-18-1 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Celtics have a slight tendency to finish under the total (53.3 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami is 32-14 SU and 24-19-2 ATS. Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Heat are involved, as 62.2 percent of their games have finished over the total.
The game should be a showdown of strength against strength as the prolific offense of Miami takes on the elite defense of Boston. The Heat rank fifth in offensive efficiency, while the Celtics are fifth in defensive efficiency.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Pick
Free Pick: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
On the road, Boston is 13-8-1 ATS with 14 unders and 8 overs.
At home, Miami is 14-7-1 ATS with 15 overs and 7 unders.
Miami is 6-1 when they allow under 100 points, while Boston is 11-2.
The Heat are 31-9 when they score over 100 points, while the Celtics are 29-9.
Boston ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.8) while Miami ranks 26th (4.2).
The Celtics rank fifth in points off turnovers per game (18.2) while the Heat rank 24th (15.5).
Boston ranks sixth in fast break points per game (15.3) while Miami ranks 25th (10.6).
The Celtics average 34.0 three pointers per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The Heat rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.4).
Boston ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Miami ranks 16th (7.9).
The Celtics rank 14th in second chance points per game (13.1) while the Heat rank 27th (11.6).
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Boston ranks eighth (44.3).
The Celtics rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.2) while the Heat rank eighth (46.0).
Boston ranks 17th in assists per game (23.5) while Miami ranks 21st in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Over its last five outings, Boston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Celtics’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, up from 6.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 116.8 points per game (4.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.6 points per game (4.3 above their season average).