The Miami Heat (17-6) welcome the Atlanta Hawks (6-17) to AmericanAirlines Arena as they try to extend their 10-game home winning streak. The game gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 10, 2019.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction
In the Hawks’ last outing, they defeated the Charlotte Hornets, 122-107, as 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (229) were over the projected point total of 222.5. Atlanta’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Charlotte. The Hawks had a rate of 0.582 (above their season average of 0.510), while the Hornets posted a mark of 0.461 (below their season average of 0.522). Atlanta received a boost from Trae Young, who was the game’s high scorer with 30 points on 9-for-20 shooting.
The Heat were victorious over the Chicago Bulls in their last contest, 110-105, but failed to cover as 6-point favorites. The game’s total points (215) finished over the O/U total of 209.5. Getting to the free throw line was one of Miami’s largest advantages. They had 44 free throw attempts, while Chicago had just 27. With 21 points, 13 rebounds and six assists, Miami’s Bam Adebayo had a solid outing.
The Heat have won both matchups against the Hawks this season, including a 106-97 victory the last time these teams met. Miami covered as a 7-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 203 points, which was 12.5 points below the projected point total of 215.5 points. Miami had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.560 vs. 0.449). Atlanta, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 20.9). DeAndre’ Bembry had a double-double in the loss with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
Atlanta heads into the game with records of 6-17 straight up (SU) and 11-12 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Hawks are playing, as 13 of their 23 games have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 17-6 SU and 13-8-2 ATS. Heat games have a slight tendency to finish over the total (47.8 percent).
Miami could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their sweet-shooting offense goes up against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Heat currently rank third in effective field goal percentage (0.548), while Atlanta ranks 23rd in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.540). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the Hawks’ offense, which ranks 29th in ball security (turnover percentage of 16.1 percent). They’ll be going up against the top-notch defense of the Heat, which forces the fifth-most turnovers in the league (15.2 percent).
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
On the road, Atlanta is 5-7 ATS with 8 overs and 4 unders.
Miami is 7-2-1 ATS at home with 6 overs and 4 unders.
Miami is 4-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Atlanta is 2-0.
The Hawks are 6-14 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 17-2.
Miami ranks third in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Atlanta ranks 29th (7.4).
The Hawks rank fourth in steals per game (8.7) while the Heat rank 24th in steals allowed per game (8.6).
Atlanta ranks third in points in the paint per game (53.7) while Miami ranks 21st (45.5).
The Heat rank 12th in second chance points allowed per game (12.6) while the Hawks rank 29th (15.3).
Miami ranks 13th in points off turnovers (17.9 per game) while Atlanta ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed (19.9 per game).
The Heat rank 15th in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Hawks rank 26th (42.0).
Atlanta averages 32.7 three pointers per game, which ranks 16th in the league. Miami ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (37.0).
The Heat average 24.9 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Hawks rank 18th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
Atlanta ranks 21st in fast break points per game (12.0) while Miami ranks 27th (10.7).
In its last five outings, Atlanta is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push over its last five games.
The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, down from 8.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 109.0 points per game (2.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.2 points per game (1.7 above their season average).
