Vincente Luque vs Belal Muhammad Fight Odds
Vincente Luque -180 vs Belal Muhammad
Fight is at 170 lbs and is -140 to end inside the distance.
It is not every card that we get the best fight of the card and the main event overlapping. This card is one of those. These fighters are surging. Sixth ranked Belal Muhammad has gone seven straight fights without a loss. Fifth ranked Vincente Luque has won 10 of his last 11 fights. Nine of those wins have come by way of finish. 13 of his 14 UFC wins have come by way of finish.
The first thing to address about this fight is that the first fight likely has little bearing on this fight. Luque slept Muhammad in just over a minute in their first meeting. While that outcome certainly has at least a decent probability of repeating this time around, the fact that it has happened once before is not among the reasons why.
Vincente Luque vs Belal Muhammad Promo Code
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How The Fight Plays Out
Starting with Muhammad, he has been on a tear and climbed his way up the ranks. He has used his wrestling to great effect in that run. He may well look to lean on it again, but there are issues for him with that approach. Luque has some of the best front chokes in MMA. I pointed this out against bith Woodley and Chiesa, and that is exactly how Luque ended both of those fights. He knows how to snatch the neck of a wrestler making even a slight mistake, and knows how to end the fight. In the UFC alone, Luque has five wins by either D’arce or Ananconda choke. One bit of sloppiness on any entry from Muhammad could quite easily lead to a sixth.
Muhammad will have the ability to land some takedowns if he is careful and sharp with his shots, but I do not believe this fight will be decided on the mat. It could be decided by stuffed takedowns turned to a submission, but not by completed takedowns. Muhammad is the better wrestler, but Luque is the better grappler. Even if taken down he will return to his fight with little issue.
The stand up is where Luque will have his way with Muhammad once again. The small cage will help as Luque keeps his normal pressuring approach. Luque methodically presses forward like a terminator, landing at all levels on his opponents. His leg kicks are sharp and his boxing covers the rest. He is insanely durable, and eats shots to pass out more.
Muhammad is a sound striker, but he has always lacked a real power element to his striking. He always brings a point fighting approach, and that will put him on the wrong end against Luque. Even if Muhammad is able to keep the volume even, he will be eating the more damaging shots for the duration of the fight.
What To Bet
We will see Luque as the better, busier and more pressuring striker. He will be the fighter threatening a finish throughout, while Muhammad will have his normal approach of trying to take rounds. The irony in that is he will lose the rounds with his lack of finishing mentality. Luque will threaten submission in a huge way if Muhammad looks to wrestle. Luque will also have the better night in the stand up. While there is value in the +130 ITD line on Luque, I am opting for the -180 flat line.
Betting Pick: Luque -180
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