UFC Vegas 63 is a Fight Night Card that will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight card features a solid main event at featherweight, but it was a struggle to hold this card together. On Monday of fight week, there were only a total of nine fights confirmed. Since then, two more replacement fighters have been located and the card will go to weigh ins with 11 fights scheduled. Despite the lack of volume of fights, we still have some well made fights that will bring entertainment. That holds especially true on the main card portion.
UFC Vegas 63 takes place on Saturday October 29th, 2022. As mentioned, the card is set for 11 total fights. The first fighters are scheduled to make the walk to the octagon at 4PM EST. UFC Vegas 63 will be a steaming card. We will not have any televised portions. Both the prelims and the main card will be streamed exclusively on ESPN+.
With the promotion back at the UFC Apex, we will see the comparatively smaller sized octagon in use. This tends to give a slight edge to fighters that prefer grappling and a higher level of engagement.
Quick Look Back
UFC 280 was a massive fight card, but it unfortunately was one of those days from a betting perspective. We started the card with Volkan Oezdemir as an underdog. He hurt Nikita Krylov early, but was unable to finish. Oezdemir then seemed at least mildly uninterested. He had little urgency and allowed to relentless pressure from Krylov control the rest of the fight. Despite defending 13 takedown attempts, he spent the majority of the last two rounds on the mat, and accepted that position despite the urging of his corner.
We then had Sean Brady as a small favorite. Brady took the first round with better striking, but was not committed to his takedown entries. He was far from relentless. We saw more of the same in the second round, in an exclusively stand up fight, which is never Brady’s best path to victory. Brady began taking some damage to end the second round, and was just coasting to get back to the stool when the unthinkable happened. The ref stopped the fight with 12 seconds in the round. Brady was still defending and moving and was robbed the third round of a fight that would have been 1-1 after two rounds.
There were a couple of solid if not fight of the night candidates before we got to the last three fights of the night. We did not have a bet Petr Yan, but only because of the wideness of the line. It was a shock when O’Malley was announced as the winner in a fight Yan clearly won. I had a feeling something else was afoot when that happened, but could have never guessed what.
TJ Dillashaw as a moderate underdog was our final bet of the night. He came out and we learned in the first minute of the fight that he had an injury. We all figured out that his shoulder came out and the one armed fighter was eventually finished in the second round. The scumbag announced after the fight that he suffered the injury all the way back in April but still proceeded anyway. The result was a foregone conclusion with him entering the fight in the condition that he was in. Sad card, but we will be back on track for UFC Vegas 63.
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UFC Vegas 63 Fight Card
In terms of overall strength of card, this one would not be considered a strong one in any event. It also has the misfortune of being the week following the historic UFC 280 card. That said, there is still a solid main event and some fights that are likely to produce exciting finishes. There is not significant star power on the card, nor a high volume of fights. There is however the probability of a plethora of fun finishes.
Main Event
The main event takes place at featherweight. It features a pair of well rounded fighters who both prefer striking to grappling. The oddsmakers are quite correct in making this a close fight. Arnold Allen is a -125 favorite over Calvin Kattar. The fight has a -105 line to end inside the distance.
This striking heavy battle will be a power vs volume battle. Calvin Kattar is always a heavy volume striker with his boxing heavy approach. Kattar lands plenty to be sure, but he brings heavy volume out of his opponents in exchanges as well. In five of his last six fights, his opponents have landed their personal best or second personal best in terms of significant strikes. Kattar is just 3-3 in those last six fights. Despite out landing Josh Emmett in his most recent fight, Kattar lost a decision. He also had the significant strike record for a fight set against him by Max Holloway three fights ago.
Arnold Allen historically not been the busiest striker on the roster. That said, in spots where counters are available or he is taking over a fight, he lets the volume go. That worked out for him in his most recent fight, a first round KO of Dan Hooker. Leading into that he had lower volume decision wins, but Allen is a powerful and refined fighter with youth on his side. Allen is surging towards a title shot, and he will have a case to make with a decisive win in this main event.
Allen does not quite bring the same power as Kattar’s most recent opponent, Josh Emmett. That said he will have a noticeable power edge in this matchup. Allen is also an overall more refined striker than Emmett and has far more range. Where Kattar is generally rangier than many featherweight opponents, he will have just very miniscule advantages in height and reach against Allen. While I will not rule out Kattar’s volume and experience winning out against a fighter moving up the ranks as it did against Giga Chikadze, I would not deem it the more likely outcome. More likely is Allen being the clearly more damaging and better fighter in the striking exchanges. -125 is a favorable price, and I was close to placing a bet on Allen. If looking for action in this main event, he is the avenue of attack.
Co-Main Event
Max Griffin vs Tim Means is not the highest quality co-main event we will see, but it is a solid fight. It likely would have been a pickem type fight a couple years ago, but we have seen subtle amounts of decline from Means. As it sits, Griffin is a -180 favorite.
Griffin should have a good fight here that he can win with pressure. While I believe both fighters will prefer to strike, Griffin will also have the advantage in the wrestling. He will at least be able to force clinch tie ups if truly needed. Neither fighter is a power dynamo, both are adequate in the power department.
Griffin’s skill set will give him the advantage of being the advancing fighter and that is likely the biggest component in this matchup. The oddsmakers have this line set properly. Griffin is likely to win, but there is little excitement about paying -180 in this spot. Certainly a fight to sit out of from a betting perspective.
Remainder Of UFC Vegas 63 Fight Card
The remainder of the card does not bring notable names. It does however have notable fights that are essentially assured to entertain. Dustin Jacoby vs Khalil Rountree is quite a banger. As is Phil Hawes vs Roman Dolidze. We will see if former TUF finalist Tresean Gore can put it together against Josh Fremd. Chase Hooper is also in action and we will see an experienced heavyweight matchup. Andrei Arlovski will take on Marcos Rogerio De Lima.
UFC Vegas 63 Bet Sheet
Even with the short card in terms of volume, we will still have three betting plays for this card. We will have a flat bet and an ITD bet on a pair of favorites. We will also have a large return ITD bet on an underdog.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting pick and analyses.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Jared Vanderaa
Dustin Jacoby vs Khalil Rountree
Phil Hawes vs Roman Dolidze
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Other UFC Vegas 63 Fight Predictions
Arnold Allen via decision over Calvin Kattar
Max Griffin via decision over Tim Means
Josh Fremd via KO over Tresean Gore
Marcos Rogerio de Lima via KO over Andre Arlovski
Joseph Holmes via submission over Junyong Park
Chase Hooper via submission over Steve Garcia
Carlos Mota via KO over Cody Durden
Christian Rodriguez via decision over Joshua Weems