UFC Vegas 58 is a Fight Night card that takes place on Saturday Jul7 9th, 2022. The event will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The 12 fight card will have the first fighters make the walk to the octagon at 6PM EST. While there are a couple of bright spots, we have to call this card what it is. It is just a lower level Fight Night card. There are a couple true up and coming fighters in action, particularly at the very beginning and very end of the card. The in between is where there are a gaggle of fighters that lack any real ceiling in the UFC.
With the return to the Apex, I like to give a reminder that the octagon used in that building is smaller than the normal octagon. The smaller octagon in the Apex tends to favor wrestlers, grapplers and fighters who otherwise want to constantly engage due there being less space.
UFC Vegas 58 Promo Code
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Quick Look Back
UFC 276 was a highly anticipated event, but it only partially delivered. That is not to take too much away from it, but at least the pay per view portion of the card left something to be desired. We also had a rough betting week.
Our first wager of the night was on Maycee Barber. I advised that her power would win the day, and it did, just not in totality. The +330 ITD shot missed as Barber retired Jessica Eye, but via decision not a finish.
Fraudulent O’Malley?
Our last three plays were on the pay per view card. The first of which was the most utterly tilting in Pedro Munhoz. I advised his leg kicks would be the difference in the fight. Through one round he had landed 25 of them, and he earned round 1 on the judges scorecards. He took a second eye poke in round 2 and was unable to continue, unfortunately forcing a no contest and draw on the +245 underdog that was ahead and en route to a win.
Next up was Sean Strickland at +100, who was clearly unaware he had a cardio advantage later in the fight. He ate a pair of stiff shots in round 1 and was knocked out, setting up Alex Pereira for an MMA fight with Israel Adesanya.
Last we had Max Holloway at +165. After a controversial loss in the second fight against Volkanovski, I thought Max was poised to regain his title. It did not play out that way and frankly, quite the opposite. Volkanovski put on an absolute clinic in one of the best performances we will ever see in the octagon, and the best showing of his career. Volkanovski has graduated to the elite in the sport. His speed was something to behold and he has leveled up in a massive way.
Nearly all of our profit from the previous week was eaten up by this card, but we still are cruising on the year. We will begin getting back on track this week with UFC Vegas 58.
UFC Vegas 58 Fight Card
As mentioned in the introduction, the overall quality of fights leaves a little something to be desired on this card. The main event is a truly well made one and one to anticipate. The same can be said for the co-main between two expected long term prospects. That exact same sentiment stands for the first fight of the night. It’s a number of the fights in between that make this card not the best we will see.
Main Event
The main event is an awesome one, and is the battle of the Rafael’s. Rafael Fiziev is a -215 favorite over Rafael Dos Anjos. These are two fighters that are very high end at lightweight and it will be fascinating to see how the fight plays out. We will have a wager on this fight so much more on this one later.
Co-Main Event
The co-main event features up and coming prospects and is a good one. Caio Borralho sits as a -215 favorite over Armen Petrosyan.
Caio Borralho is a surprisingly large favorite, but I suppose it makes some level of sense considered his dominant performance in his debut. The wrestler and grappler showed some very real ability to control, and while the win was via decision, it was a dominant one.
Borralho is matched up with Armen Petrosyan. Petrosyan was even more impressive in his own debut. He notched a win against Gregory Rodrigues, who is likely inarguably a better both striker abd grappler than Borralho. Petrosyan will be the superior striker in this matchup, and he could truly make Borralho desperate to get the fight down to the mat.
In my opinion the ability to both take down and control for Borralho will be the absolute key to the fight. I think Borralho will land some takedowns, but am quite skeptical on the ability to control Petrosyan. Borralho did have over 10 minutes of control in that first fight, but faces an entirely different opponent here. Petrosyan has great takedown defense and even better get ups.
Value On The Underdog
I do believe this fight is decided in the stand up, which lends a large edge to the underdog in Petrosyan. I am just a tick short of having the confidence in that outcome to make it a dedicated betting pick. In any event, the value in this co-main event is all on the side of the +175 underdog in Petrosyan.
Remainder Of UFC Vegas 58 Fight Card
The biggest bright spot on the card is the very first fight of the night. Ronnie Lawrence is back in action against another rock solid prospect in Saidyokub Kakhramonov. Lawrence is one of a handful of favorites I have a solid lean towards but am stopping short of pulling the trigger on from a betting picks perspective. The others are Tresean Gore, Antoninia Shevchenko, Ricky Turcios and Said Nurmagomedov. The majority of these requite laying nearly 2 to 1 and I am stopping just a tick short on making them betting plays. That said, if you are looking for more action on this card, those are the fighters to target.
UFC Vegas 58 Bet Sheet
We will only have two betting picks for UFC Vegas 58. Despite the lack of quantity, our risk will be very much mitigated. Our two bets will come with +180 and -105 price tags, so there is all upside and small risk for this card.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting picks and analyses.
Rafael Fiziev vs Rafael Dos Anjos
Jamie Mullarkey vs Michael Johnson
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Other Fight Predictions
Armen Petrosyan via KO over Caio Borralho
Said Nurmagomedov via KO over Douglas Silva de Andrade
Jared Vanderaa via decision over Chase Sherman
Nina Nunes via decision over Cynthia Calvillo
Ricky Turcios via decision over Aiemann Zahabi
Antonina Shevchenko via decision over Cortney Casey
Tresean Gore via KO over Cody Brundage
David Onama via KO over Garret Armfield
Karl Roberson via KO over Kennedy Nzechukwu
Ronnie Lawrence via decision over Saidyokub Kakhramonov