Rafael Fiziev vs Rafael Dos Anjos Fight Odds
Rafael Fiziev -215 v Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight is five rounds at 155 lbs and is +110 to end inside the distance.
This lightweight main event is between two fighters that bring championship aspirations. Rafael Dos Anjos was already a champ back in 2015 and 2016. He then spent four years messing around at welterweight, but has correctly returned to his best weight class of lightweight. Dos Anjos is 2-0 since the drop back down, and there is a big portion of his game that has returned since the drop. Fiziev is angling towards his first title shot. He has five straight wins and now gets his first crack at a championship caliber fighter.
UFC Vegas 58 Promo
Check out this Caesars promo for the UFC Vegas 58 main event. Follow the link and they will give you a completely risk free first bet! That is good for up to $1500!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Fiziev
Fiziev is a masterful striker. Saying anything less is taking away from his technical brilliance in the stand up. There are very few, if any lightweights that will take a point fighting striking battle from Fiziev. Fiziev is simply on the highest of echelons as a striker. Now, he is not without vulnerabilities in MMA. The first is that he does not bring massive power for all of his striking prowess. Three of his five UFC wins have come by way of decision. Another is that he is not seasoned as a grappler the way he is as a striker. He has done very well to not be taken down in MMA and has popped up when he has been, but that portion of his skill set will be tested like never before in this fight. The other weakness we have seen is the gas tank not holding up perfectly, and that being in three round fights. He will have to address the cardio or the championship rounds in this main event may well be his undoing.
RDA
Rafael Dos Anjos has returned to lightweight with wins over Renato Moicano and Paul Felder. He takes another step back towards the belt in this fight with FIziev. Although he is an underdog, I believe this to be a favorable spot for RDA. Of course, he will not be the superior striker, but he does not have to be. Dos Anjos will lose any of the early rounds that are predominantly stand up rounds. That is a fact but is also not to say RDA will be lost in the striking. He will not take rounds early on in that department from Fiziev, but he will also not be helpless. The mission for Dos Anjos will be to keep the fight competitive early on as it takes place in Fiziev’s realm. As the fight progresses, so do the advantages for Dos Anjos.
Since his return to lightweight we have seen the wrestling of RDA shine. He has 11 takedowns in those two fights and of course he is a phenomenal grappler. We have also seen five rounds of gas from him on countless occasions, and that will be a massive edge. The wrestling was far more difficult at welterweight for RDA, but he is back in his element at lightweight. While he may not have worlds of success with that wrestling early on, the wrestling will be what takes over this fight as it progresses. Even if Fiziev is stuffing early takedowns, the harder he is made to work, the more quickly and thoroughly his cardio will be drained. Once the middle and later portions of the fight arrive, Dos Anjos will shine. A tired Fiziev trying to hold off a wrestler and world class grappler is a recipe for a Dos Anjos win.
What To Bet
The difficulty I have in this fight is whether to be aggressive on the the +450 ITD line of RDA or to stick with the flat line of +180. We have seen Fiziev finished before so its not as if it would be a first time occurrence. Even with that being the case and the cardio and BJJ edges of RDA very possibly finding a finish later in the fight, I will remain conservative and go with RDA on the flat line.
Betting Pick: Dos Anjos +180
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+