UFC Vegas 53
UFC Vegas 53 is a Fight Night Card that takes place in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight card consists of 12 fights and takes place on Saturday April 30th, 2022. The fighters in the opening fight are scheduled to make the walk at 4PM EST. The headlining fight is a solid bantamweight bout. Marlon Vera will compete in his first well earned main event against Rob Font.
We are back at the UFC Apex for UFC Vegas 53. After returning to consecutive live events, it continues to feel like something is missing on the Apex cards. Of course, cards taking place at the Apex became the norm during COVID reactions in the country. We continue getting nearer to the old and proper normal, but we are not quite there yet.
This card is the last of three consecutive going back to the Apex. The good news on that is banger of a pay per view we have to look forward to next week. The bad news is this card leaves very much to be desired and is a low end Fight Night card.
This is a good time to bring up a general rule for Apex cards. The octagon in that building is significantly smaller than the normal octagon. The smaller cage favors fighters who prefer constant engagement and works against fighters whose style is to stay at range.
UFC Vegas 53 Promo Code
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Quick Look Back
UFC Vegas 52 was a fantastic card for us. After snapping a months long winning streak with out first losing week at 1-2, we got back on track in a huge way. The betting picks went a perfect 4-0 on another smash night.
We started with the Jordan Wright vs Marc-Andre Barriault fight with a fight ends ITD bet. Barriault brought that home with a beautiful first round guillotine. Next up was a flat play on Charles Jourdain. He was also impressive with his own first round gilly. Maycee Barber was out last flat play of the night. She was extremely impressive in out clinching and out grappling Montana De La Rosa in an easy decision win. Finally, we had another fight ends ITD bet in the main event. We saw a more measured Jessica Andrade than we are accustomed to. She was eating some stiff strikes and leg kicks from Amanda Lemos, but that all changed when Andrade was able to clinch up. She cinched in the first standing arm triangle in UFC history. That was good for a first round win and a perfect week for us.
UFC Vegas 53 Fight Card
I generally do not like to speak ill of cards before they happen, but this card is lacking from my perspective. There is little to no star power. There is a lack of intriguing fights. Additionally we are going to see the biggest favorite in UFC history when ALexandr Romanov makes the walk at well over -2000 to face Chase Sherman. The co-main event is also one of the most underwhelming in memory. Jake Collier vs Andrei Arlovski in a point fighting striking affair at heavyweight does not move the needle for me.
Enough with the pitfalls, let’s focus on some of the more positive things. There are still some solid fights, including the main event. More on that in a bit. Andre Fili vs Joanderson Brito is going to be an awesome, action filled matchup. Brito is more live than the betting lines suggest. We also kick off the card with the debut of Tatsuro Taira. I am not fully prepared to lay the -250 on him, but he likely has a bright future and is a fighter to watch.
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Main Event
The main event will be a tightly contested bantamweight bout between Marlon “Chito” Vera and Rob Font. The oddsmakers have Font set as a -135 favorite.
It took 18 fights with 12 wins under the UFC banner for Marlon Vera to get his first main event. He certainly put in the time and earned it. The matchup with Rob Font is an extremely intriguing as they have contrasting styles. The fight is wide open for either side, depending which fighter can dictate where the majority of the fight takes place.
Rob Font is a crisp and smooth striker with a focus on boxing. His punches come straight and fast, and he will certainly be the higher volume striker. Vera probably has a power edge in the stand up, but he will be at a massive technique and volume disadvantage. He does not do well to keep from eating shots, instead relying on durability. Vera has never been finished in any of his six UFC losses, and I would not expect that to start on Saturday. However, if the fight takes place predominantly in the stand up, he is likely to notch his seventh decision loss in the UFC.
Chito Vera will need the majority of this fight to take place either in the clinch or on the floor. The floor would be best for Vera as he is the superior grappler. He is quite good off of his back as well, but that can be a pitfall for him as he is willing to spend too much time there. That is another potential contributor to him losing a decision. If he is able to land takedowns and work from top position in multiple rounds, he will take those rounds and potentially find a finish. He will also be the fighter to benefit if he can muddy the fight up with a good deal of clinch time. I prefer his dirty boxing to Font’s.
All in all, this is a close fight, but Font is the fighter with a more clear cut path to victory. Font is a slight favorite, and I believe the oddsmakers have this line dead on. This is a fight to sit back and enjoy and look to other fights for betting action.
UFC Vegas 53 Bet Sheet
Sadly, in addition to the lack of quality on the card, we have a lack of betting volume as well. That is not to say that we have no bets to make, just fewer than usual. We have two betting picks on two moderate favorites. For what its worth, I feel good about them both on the flat lines. Additionally, both are grapplers in the smaller Apex cage. Let’s get to that pair of betting plays for UFC Vegas 53.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting picks and analyses.
Grant Dawson vs Jared Gordon
Gina Mazany vs Shanna Young
Other UFC Vegas 53 Fight Predictions
Marlon Vera via submission over Rob Font
Jake Collier via decision over Andrei Arlovski
Andre Fili via decision over Joanderson Brito
Darren Elkins via decision over Tristan Connely
Gerald Meerschart via decision Krzystof Jotko
Daniel Da Silva via decision over Francisco Figueiredo
Alexandr Romanov via ground and pound over Chase Sherman
Gabe Green via late KO over Yohan Lainesse
Natan Levy via decision over Mike Breeden
Tatsuro Taira via KO over Carlos Candelario
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