Grant Dawson vs Jared Gordon Fight Odds
Grant Dawson -175 vs Jared Gordon
Fight is at 155 lbs and is +140 to end inside the distance.
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How The Fight Plays Out
This is a fairly intriguing fight between two lightweights that have both recently made the move up to that weight class. This will give Grant Dawson the size advantage, he is naturally much more suited to the weight class. Dawson is a wrestler and grappler that will benefit every time he fights in the Apex’s smaller octagon. He has never lost in the octagon notching six wins and a draw. Dawson will likely continue to make striking improvements, but that is certainly the weakness in his game. At this point of his career, grappling is his strength and his lone path to victories. With that being the case, we do not have to wonder what his approach or game plan will be. He will take the fight down and operate on top, which is precisely where he needs to be.
Jared Gordon is a far more rounded fighter with at least competence in all level of MMA. There are no glaring holes in his game, and if we are honest, no actual weaknesses. That said he does not have any differentiating qualities either. He will be the better striker in this fight. Sadly for him, that will not matter. He is a decent enough wrestler and good grappler, but he will be taken down with relative ease by Dawson. Gordon defends just 50% of takedown attempts and has been taken down or knocked down in five of his last six fights. As mentioned, Gordon is a good grappler, and his submission defense is likely to hold up without issue. What will not work out for him is attempting to return to his feet and staying there. He will be spending a large amount of minutes on his back in this fight.
What To Bet
The best path to victory for Gordon would be a shocking tactical mistake by Dawson. He would need Dawson to come out and want to have a striking heavy fight. Since that is not going to happen, we are going to see the stronger and larger Dawson take the fight to the mat where he is best and most comfortable. I do not think a finish is overly likely, but it could certainly happen, particularly if he wears on Gordon with ground and pound for three rounds. Take Dawson flat in another grappling heavy win.
Betting Pick: Dawson -175
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