UFC Vegas 51
UFC Vegas 51 is a Fight Night Card that takes place in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight card consists of 14 fights and takes place on Saturday April 16th, 2022. The first fighters are scheduled to make the walk at 530PM EST. The headlining fight is a welterweight bout that is a rematch. Vincente Luque takes on Belal Muhammad in a redo of the 2016 matchup.
Cards taking place at the Apex became the norm during lockdown periods in the country. However, this will be the first time in a month where the Apex hosts a card. We are getting nearer to the old and proper normal, but we are not quite there yet. This card is the first of three consecutive going back to the Apex. This is a good time to bring up a general rule for Apex cards. The octagon in that building is significantly smaller than the normal octagon. The smaller cage favors fighters who prefer constant engagement and works against fighters whose style is to stay at range.
UFC Vegas 51 Promo Code
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Quick Look Back
Before moving on to our UFC Vegas 51 betting picks and predictions, we take a moment to look back at the previous card. UFC 273 was a highly successful card in all aspects. We had four betting picks, and all of those fighters came through for us. We started the night with Piera Rodriguez earning a decision win over Kay Hansen. That was followed up by a grappling clinic from Anthony Hernandez on Josh Fremd. We then saw Aleksei Oleinik do what he does and submit Jared Vanderaa in the first round. Finally, our lone underdog Mark O Madsen earned a decision over VInc Pichel.
The 4-0 betting night was additionally buoyed by the other fight predictions going 7-1. The incorrect call was on Petr Yan, who Dana White and others have not stopped short of calling the fight a robbery. We will look to keep it rolling this week.
UFC Vegas 51 Fight Card
The fight card as a whole is not high end, and it unfortunately does come with some high betting lines. Seven of fourteen fights have a betting line north of -200. Of those seven, four have a betting line north of -400. That makes it difficult to find action unless having a strong lean towards the underdog or a finish from the favorite.
There are a good deal of debuting fighters on the UFC Vegas 51 card. There are five in total, two of which are facing each other in the co-main event. Martin Buday makes his debut against Chris Barnett. He was nearly an ITD betting pick but the -165 line on that was simply too hight to comfortably fire at. Ange Loosa debuts against Mounir Lazzez on short notice. Trey Ogden debuts against Jordan Leavitt. Finally, Caio Borralho debuts against fellow debutant Gadzhi Omargadzhiev.
UFC Vegas 51 Main Event
The Vincente Luque vs Belal Muhammad welterweight main event will be a fun one. Luque currently sits as a -180 favorite. If we are honest, Luque fights are always fun, and he is a great fighter to tab for main event slots. He won the first contest via quick KO over Muhammad back in 2016. These fighters are each different versions than they were back then, so we can only put a small amount of weight in a fight from so long ago. We will have a wager on this fight so there will be plenty more on this one later.
Co-Main Event
In a very rare circumstance, the promotion has opted to pit two debuting fighters against one another in the co-main event. I do not recall this ever happening before, but I could be mistaken. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev sits as a -140 favorite over Caio Borralho.
Omargadzhiev is a wrestler through and through. He is your quintessential Russian fighter with the wrestling being the base of everything he does. His striking still needs a decent amount of work, and he will still be reliant on the takedown at this juncture of his career. He will have that wrestling as a point of advantage in this fight. As far as skill set goes however, that will be his only advantage. There will be one other different advantage for Omargadzhiev. He will be the better conditioned fighter and will have that advantage later in the fight.
Caio Barrelho is a different type of fighter than Omargadhiev. The clash in styles will make it an interesting fight, and I am guessing that is why the promotion has slotted the fight in where it has. Barrelho is going to have an advantage in the standup. I think that advantage will be pronounced, but the small cage will work against him in that regard. In a larger cage he may have had an easier time avoiding grappling exchanges, but that will be unlikely to be the case. Barrelho will win those striking exchanges, but I believe the majority of the fight will not take place in the stand up.
Where Barrelho has an advantage in the submission attacks on the mat. Barrelho has the better submission game of the two. He will not hesitate to end this fight if any wrestler sticks their neck in the wrong place. He is also capable of ending the fight once on the mat. That said, if he is unable to get that finish in the first half of the fight, he will be drained by the wrestler and will be less of a threat.
I do not think putting action on this fight is prudent. This is a better spot to continue to gain more information on both debutants for future reference.
Remainder Of UFC Vegas 51 Fight Card
There are some fun fights and fun fighters scattered throughout the rest of the card. The most notable is Miguel Baeza trying to get back on track against Andre Fialho. Baeza has lost two straight and we now have to consider his durability a question mark. He is the more skilled fighter to be sure, and I will be watching closely to see how well his chin holds up.
We will see some ascending ladies notch easy wins. Both Mayra Bueno Silva and Pannie Kianzad should find easy wins in fights in which they are both massive favorites.
We have a fight that the promotion is probably watching closely to potentially trim the roster. Both William Knight and Devin Clark are moving from light heavyweight to heavyweight. Knight could no longer make light heavyweight and Clark did not want to cut the weight. If either seems unfit for the weight class, we could see them trimmed from the roster sooner than later. I could not see either fighter having more than a two fight leash in the division.
Very early on the fight card there are a pair of intriguing matchups. I will be eager to see how Jordan Leavitt fares against the debuting wrestler in Trey Ogden. Leavitt’s grappling game is a huge advantage and it will be interesting to see if Ogden can resist the urge to wrestle. We also have a very close fight that can go either way between Rafa Garcia and Jesse Ronson.
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UFC Vegas 51 Bet Sheet
This is a card that does not set up well from a betting perspective. I mentioned our limitations in terms of options earlier, and the result is fewer betting picks than is otherwise ideal. We will have three plays, all of which are favorites and we will look for another clean sweep on this card.
Vincente Luque vs Belal Muhammad
Pat Sabatini vs TJ Laramie
Alatangheili vs Kevin Croom
Other UFC Vegas 51 Fight Predictions
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev via decision over Caio Carrelho
Miguel Baeza via KO over Andre Fialho
Mayra Bueno Silva via decision over Wu Yunan
Mounir Lazzez via decision over Ange Loosa
Devin Clark via decision over William Knight
Pannie Kianzad via decision over Lina Lansberg
Drakkar Klose via decision over Brandon Jenkins
Rafa Garcia via decision over Jesse Ronson
Martin Buday via submission over Chris Barnett
Jordan Leavitt via submission over Trey Ogden
Istela Nunes via decision over Sam Hughes
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