UFC Paris sees the promotion not just on the road, but overseas for an historic event. With the recent legalization of MMA in France, this UFC Paris card marks the promotion’s first trip to France in its history. UFC Paris will take place on Saturday September 3rd, 2022. The 12 fight card will see the first fighters make the walk to the octagon at 12PM EST. This will make it a day time fight card in the states, but an evening card for Europe. Not counting last week’s rare week off, this will be the third consecutive card on the road.
UFC Paris will be broadcast live from the Accor Arena. Despite the daytime and historic card, UFC Paris will not be a televised event. Both the prelims and the main card will stream exclusively on ESPN+.
With the promotion on the road and not at the UFC Apex, we will see the comparatively larger sized octagon in use. This tends to give a slight edge to fighters that prefer range and a lower level of engagement.
UFC Paris Promo Code
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Quick Look Back
After a losing betting night on UFC 278, I felt a bit robbed given how some of the fights played out. One in particular. I re-watched those fights a few days later, and felt no differently the second time around, just with no immediate emotion involved. Our official bets went 1-3, and that does not include stopping short of pulling the trigger on winning underdog Marcin Tybura. That also does not include picking every other fight on the card correctly, save for Leon Edwards, who I did note was easily the value side. Sigh. Let’s look at the bets.
Prelims
Our first bet of the night was on AJ Fletcher against Ange Loosa, and one of the more tilting losses we will have this year. The one portion of the fight I was not correct on was the ability of Fletcher to take Loosa down. The Loosa takedown defense and wrestling is every bit as advertised. That said, I was certainly correct on Fletcher being the far more explosive striker. Fletcher had Loosa hurt very bad in the second round. I think labeling Loosa out on his feet would be a better way to say it. Loosa turned his back and quit at one point during the barrage, but Mike Beltran did not see that as enough to stop the fight. The result was Fletcher completely punching himself out and being beaten in the third round in an exhausted state. There was a rightful outcry on social media that Beltran dropped the ball on that non stoppage.
The next fighter on our bet sheet was Leo Santos at a large plus figure to win inside the distance. We knew he was dangerous early and would lose if and when he gassed. Santos seemed to know it too and simply fought not to gas. He took away his own path to victory and dropped an ugly decision.
Main Card
Moving on to the main card, we had our winner on Merab Dvalishvili. It was not the most entertaining fight of the night, but it was a pretty academic and sweat free win on Merab. Lastly, we took Paulo Costa inside the distance against Luke Rockhold. Costa fought about as low IQ fight as one can in a win. Rockhold was as visibly drained and exhausted on his feet, and Costa hurt him multiple times. He just would not (that purposely does not read “could not) patiently set up the needed kill shot. He even allowed grappling exchanges which gave Rockhold his only real chance.
UFC Paris Fight Card
The UFC Paris fight card is quite solid, and brings both a great main event and co-main event. We have a championship caliber main event at heavyweight as Ciryl Gane looks to notch a win in his home country. He takes on heavy hitter and brawler Tai Tuivasa. In the co-main event we see a former middleweight champ take on a former title challenger. Robert Whittaker meets Marvin Vettori. Current middleweight champ Israel Adesanya has a very strong opinion on this fight.
Main Event
We should have a banger at heavyweight in this main event. Ciryl Gane will look to have technique and refinement win the day. The same will not hold true for Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa. Tuivasa prefers engagement and exchanging, betting on his own power and durability. Gane is set as a significant -585 favorite in this matchup.
We will see both fighters bring their normal approach, assuming their own style will trump everything the opposing fighter has to offer. Tuivasa has found massive success in borderline brawling, but easily a style in which he does not mind trading. He has very real power and has shown real durability and found great success. He has also put in work in recent years to shore up his wrestling and grappling, which was a liability earlier in his UFC tenure.
Ciryl Gane is a very tight and technical striker. He is not always heavy in volume, but he is always adequate. Gane uses rarely seen speed and movement at the heavyweight division to touch up his opponents, and has not been outdone in that realm to date. He has also shown real know how in the grappling realm, even if his wrestling has not been high end.
How The Main Event Plays Out
We will likely see a fight play out where Gane wins every round in which he is not knocked out. I believe it to be completely knockout or bust for Tuivasa. It is a main event similar to the one we saw between Edwards and Usman a couple weeks ago. Much like Usman, the favored Gane is more likely to win the fight, but the betting value is certainly on the underdog. With a +600 return on Tuivasa ITD and his only path to victory being a KO, those needing action on this main event should side with that Tuivasa ITD play.
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Co-Main Event
Robert Whittaker sits as a -230 favorite against Marvin Vettori. This is a fun fight at the top of the middleweight division, but I think there is an easy side to lean towards. We will have a wager on this fight so much more on this one in a bit.
Remainder Of UFC Paris Fight Card
The oddsmakers did will to give us close or close enough fights throughout this card. With the exception of the main event, every fight on this card brings a favorite of -300 or less. The issue we run into from a betting perspective is that 8 of those other 11 fights have a favorite between -200 and -300. More on those complications in the next section.
As far as fights and fighters, we should have some fun ones here. Benoit Saint Denis always delivers on entertainment. Joaquim Buckley and Nassourdine Imavov should put on a show. We will also have a fun banger between Nathaniel Wood and Charles Jourdain. We also get to see a step back up for Nasrat Haqparast.
UFC Paris Bet Sheet
As I touched on above, there are just a whole gaggle of favorites right at or above that -200 figure for this card, and not much attractiveness on the underdog side of things. With that being the case, I am certainly not going to force eating too much chalk this week. We will have bets on two of those favorites.
Click the link below for a full breakdown with recommended betting pick and analyses.
Robert Whittaker vs Marvin Vettori
Nasrat Haqparast vs John Makdessi
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Other UFC Paris Fight Predictions
Ciryl Gane via decision over Tai Tuivasa
Roman Kopylov via decision over Alessio Di Chirico
William Gomis via decision over Jarno Errens
Charles Jourdain via KO over Nathaniel Wood
Abus Magomedov via KO over Dustin Stoltzfus
Michael Figlak via decision over Fares Ziam
Nassourdine Imavov via decision over Joaquin Buckley
Benoit Saint Denis via submission over Gabriel Miranda
Khalid Taha via decision over Cristian Quinonez
Stephanie Egger via KO over Ailin Perez