We can all agree that there was a lack of compelling matchups on last weekend’s UFC card, right? The gambling aspect can make any match compelling, but on the surface, there just weren’t a lot of matches to get excited about. The immediate aftermath of the main event was also to talk about how boring Islam Makhachev’s style is. Effective, but boring.
If you compare UFC on ESPN 26 with this weekend’s UFC on ESPN 27 card, it is a night and day difference. We have a highly-anticipated return in the main event, two outstanding women’s fights on the main card, a Fight of the Year candidate, and so much more.
In order to handicap the July 24 card, we’ll look at the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $600 Risk-Free Bet if you sign up through us at ATS.io.
UFC on ESPN 27 Odds – The Return of TJ Dillashaw
TJ Dillashaw returns as a +155 underdog against Cory Sandhagen (-185) in the former champion’s first fight since January 19, 2019. Dillashaw tested positive for a banned substance and then suffered an injury prior to his return, so he will have been sidelined for 30 months by the time this fight begins.
To take it one step further, the last time we saw Dillashaw, he lost in just 32 seconds to Henry Cejudo for the bantamweight title. He effectively hasn’t been in an actual fight since August 4, 2018.
As a result, we see Sandhagen as a big favorite here. Sandhagen’s only UFC loss came against Aljamain Sterling and there is no shame in that. He has a height advantage here and has been fighting consistently, whereas the 35-year-old Dillashaw has not.
Is the price too big at -185? It doesn’t look like it to me.
Pick: Cory Sandhagen
Macy Chiasson (+165) vs. Aspen Ladd (-200)
Another long-awaited return takes place in this fight, as Aspen Ladd comes back from a torn ACL and MCL to face Macy Chiasson. Both fighters enter with one loss. Barring a draw, somebody will suffer a big setback in the bantamweight division.
Don’t you have to wonder about Ladd here? Her last fight was over 18 months ago. She could very well be undefeated if not for the early stoppage against Germaine de Randamie, but we saw Maycee Barber return from a torn ACL and look very tentative in a loss to Alexa Grasso earlier this year.
All fighters are different. All injuries and all rehabs are different. But, Chiasson is a very capable fighter and a dangerous opponent for Ladd in her return. If nothing else, the -200 price looks a little bit optimistic for this matchup. Chiasson has five inches on Ladd here, so she can keep the pressure up throughout the fight.
Pick: Macy Chiasson
UFC on ESPN 27 Best Bets
Those two fights are certainly compelling, but they are not the only ones.
Maycee Barber (+110) over Miranda Maverick (-130)
What a great fight this could turn out to be. You have to think that Maycee Barber is in better shape for this fight. She went the distance with Alexa Grasso back in February at UFC 258. She lost 29-28 across all three cards. She was tentative. She was a lot less active than her opponent. It was her first fight in 13 months coming off of the torn ACL.
Miranda Maverick is also a really promising prospect, but the price on this fight seems a little bit off. We shouldn’t see a punishment in the odds for Barber with the back-to-back losses. Against Modafferi, she tore her ACL, but kept going. Against Grasso, a very good fighter in her own right, she was just a little unsure of herself and had some cage rust.
Maverick hasn’t fought anybody equal to her talent level until now. This fight seems a lot closer to a coin flip and we’re getting plus money on Barber.
Pick: Maycee Barber
Brendan Allen (-110) over Punahele Soriano (-110)
This fight could have some serious fireworks. This will already be the 21st professional fight for Brendan Allen at the age of 25. Punahele Soriano will be fighting under UFC contract for just the third time, but he has been thoroughly impressive to this point.
Allen’s wins over Kevin Holland and Karl Roberson are better than anything Soriano has done to this point in his career. Allen has had some consistency issues, but all four losses he has have been against UFC-caliber fighters. Soriano hasn’t had enough quality data points to take seriously as of yet.
Both guys have lots of paths to victory here, but the taller, longer Allen seems to have the advantage between his experience and also his size. This is a great fight, but one that should go to Allen.