UFC Columbus is a good fight night card that takes place in Columbus, OH. It is truly a breathe of fresh air to have consecutive weeks with the UFC back out on the road. They have been doing live events for Pay Per Views, but this two week stretch marks the return of the Octagon to arenas around the country and world.
The 13 fight card is again made solidly, with betting lines all over the board. The fight lines range from pickem to over 5:1 favorites. The first fighters on the card will make the walk at 4PM EST on Saturday March 26th. UFC Columbus broadcasts live on ESPN and streams live on ESPN+ from the Nationwide Arena.
UFC Columbus Promo
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Quick Look Back
It was a blessing to see the first international card since the pandemic began. Not only was it a Fight Night with fans, it was on the short list of best UFC cards ever. Accolades like that are generally reserved for Pay Per Views, but this one absolutely over delivered in an unforeseeable way. If you love MMA and did not get to watch UFC London, I urge with every fiber of my being to go back and watch the fight card. Even if you did watch, it is well worth watching a second time.
On the betting side of things, we ended up with only three bets. One of our bets was the scrapped fight between Natahaniel Wood and Vince Morales. We can only hope the promotion rebooks that fight so we can go right back to betting Wood.
As far as our bets that did go off, they went 2-1. Our loser was a split decision loss on Cory McKenna. McKenna fought a low IQ fight and was not helped by her corner at all. It hurt to lose the juice on that one, but our other two plays came through to keep from losing on the night. Both Ilia Topuria and and Tom Aspinall came through with convincing and spectacular finishes to go in the win column for us.
UFC Columbus Card
This card marks the second of consecutive Fight Night cards to take place outside of the Apex. Clearly having fans in the seats added something to the product, and the hope is that trend continues this week.
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Main Event
The UFC Columbus card is headlined by a heavyweight scrap for the second straight week. This week we will see Curtis Blaydes take on Chris Daukaus. The oddsmakers favor Blaydes as a -380 favorite. Unlike last week’s main event, there is not a screaming value to attack. I know many of you will want to play the main event and co-main event, so as always, here’s some thoughts on those fights.
With Curtis Blaydes, there is not much left to the unknown. We know he is the best wrestler in the heavyweight division. There is really no debate to be had on that label for Blaydes. There are no heavyweights that he cannot take down, and he is something of unstoppable when he is relentless with his wrestling. That of course comes with the caveat of avoiding power in the stand up, something that his success rate is less than perfect with.
The fighters that have been able to starch Blaydes prior to being taken down are in the highest echelon of power strikers we have ever seen. Those fighters were Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou twice. Chris Daukaus has power to be sure, but he does not have power on the level of those fighters. So that begs the question of how this fight will play out.
Daukaus is the sharper and quicker striker. He will land with better volume and power in the stand up portion of the fight. He will be live for a KO, especially in the first round. Blaydes is not a wrestler that is helpless in the stand up. He is capable, he will just be at something of a moderate disadvantage in the striking. The wrestling will come more quickly once that becomes apparent to him.
How It Plays Out
Assuming the fight lasts longer than a minute, Blaydes will be able to land takedowns in this fight. He will be able to get the fight down, the question is the level of control he will be able to have. Additionally we do not know what the Daukaus gas tank will look like later in the fight. In five UFC appearances, he has not had to get past the seven minute mark.
The most notable thing about Daukaus is that he is a BJJ black belt. I am unsure if he will be a true submission threat from his back. If so, he will certainly have the opportunities to throw those up. While Blaydes is fantastic on the floor, he has not had to contend with a world of fighters that could threaten submissions. That said we saw him take Aleksei Oleinik down and not even attempt a submission.
How It Ends and What To Consider Betting
If this fight goes to a decision, I can’t see a way Blaydes is not getting his hand raised. If the fight ends inside the distance, it could be on either side. It would likely take a later ground and pound finish for it to be Blaydes with the finish. If it is on the Daukaus side, I could see it coming very early or very late. It is certainly within the realm of possibility to see Daukaus put Blaydes out at the onset. There is also a possibility of the lighter Daukaus having a true cardio edge and being the fresher fighter later on, and pouring it on a tired Blaydes.
Blaydes is the more likely fighter to win the fight. That said I do not believe him to be the better value at -380. Considering Daukaus probably does not have a path to a decision win, we would dbe looking at his +380 ITD line. That is the most value laden bet even if it is not the most probable outcome.
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Co-main Event
The co-main event pits a pair of strikers against one another in the ladies flyweight division. Joanne Wood brings her Muay Thai skill set to take on the boxing heavy approach of Alexa Grasso. The oddsmakers have Grasso as a -240 favorite, which is too wide.
These two women are quite similar in that they tend to fare very well in striking heavy fights while they have had their issues when they have been taken down. While we could see either fighter try to time a takedown, we should get a fun stand-up heavy affair.
Wood
Wood is a fighter that has had, in my opinion, bad luck with the judges. I thought she was robbed on the scorecards in her fights against both Katlyn Chookagian and Lauren Murphy. Both of those ladies got title shots so Wood is quite close to being second best in the division. Of course the champ Valentina Shevchenko is levels and levels above the field.
Wood is a great striker that certainly throws in volume. She will have a volume edge in this matchup. She is going to land and land often. Wood will also be hit, but I don’t believe it will be close to being at the same rate. The question boils down to whether the power edge and perhaps better hands of Grasso will be able to steal rounds, despite being the lower volume fighter.
I simply believe the line should be much tighter, perhaps even a pickem in this fight. The volume disparity on the Wood side is going to be very real. It very likely will be enough to propel her to a decision win. A split decision going other way would not be shocking at all. That said, if playing the fight, be sure to take the +195 neighborhood on Wood.
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Remainder Of UFC Columbus Card
The rest of this card is quite solid. We get some grizzled vets matched up with either in the welterweight and heavyweight divisions. Those fights are Matt Brown taking on Bryan Barbarena and Ilir Latifi taking on Aleksei Oleinik. We get a glimpse at the likely next challenger for the title in the flyweight division after Figueiredo and Moreno go at it one more time. The winner of the Askar Askarov vs Kai Kara-France fight will almost certainly earn number one contender status. Among other notable things, we also get the debut of Aliaskhab Khizriev, a very real prospect.
We will have four betting plays on the card. The only downside is our lack of plus figures to attack. We will only have one such play in our four bets. Without any further ado, let’s get to them.
UFC Columbus Bet Sheet
Click the links below to read the betting plays and analyses.
David Dvorak vs Matheus Nicolau
Batgarel Danaa vs Chris Gutierrez
Neil Magny vs Max Griffin
Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik
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Other UFC Columbus Fight Predictions
Derrick Lewis via decision over Chris Daukaus
Joanne Wood via decision over Alexa Grasso
Matt Brown via KO over Bryan Barbarena
Askar Askarov via decision over Kai Kara-France
Viacheslav Broschev via KO over Marc Diakiese
Karol Rosa via submission over Sara McMann
Aliaskhab Khizriev via submission over Denis Tiuliulin
Manon Fiorot via decision over Jennifer Maia
Luis Saldana via decision over Bruno Souza