Nikita Krylov vs Volkan Oezdemir Fight Odds
Nikita Krylov -175 vs Volkan Oezdemir
Fight is at 205 lbs and is -225 to end inside the distance.
Nikita Krylov had the most impressive performance of his career in his last fight, at least on the surface. He finished Alexader Gustafsson after knocking him down twice in the very first round. Krylov did all he could do against the opponent put in front of him. That said, he was facing an opponent that was completely washed, with all due respect to Gustafsson. Krylov looked phenomenal, but it comes with that asterisk. He had dropped three of four fights leading into that, so it is puzzling why the oddsmakers are giving him the amount of respect they are in this matchup. He has also fought an overall significantly lower level of competition than his opponent. Krylov does have a rounded game and is not at all incapable, but he does not have many areas of real advantage in this matchup. Krylov will not be the superior striker, but he will have an advantage in speed. He will not have any ability to take down this specific opponent, and will need to win a striking heavy decision.
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Volkan Oezdemir continues to see a drop in his level of competition. He beat Paul Craig in his most recent fight, and that was a common opponent that Krylov was not able to beat. Prior to that he fought a who’s who at light heavyweight. In the last five years he has fought the likes of Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith, Dominick Reyes, Aleksander Rakic, Magomed Ankalaev and current champ Jiri Prochazka. Oezdemir is a crisp and powerful fighter that does not make mistakes. He also has some of the strongest hips we will see in MMA and is wildly difficult to take down. He is going to have a sound power edge in this matchup. I believe his power will be the difference in the striking exchanges and he will drain Krylov’s cardio for any attempt to get the fight to the mat. Look for Oezdemir to land the more damaging shots in a fight that oddsmakers believe ends inside the distance.
This is a fairly close fight, but I do believe the wrong fighter is favored entirely. Oezdemir should sit around -140 by my view. He is the fighter that has fought superior competition and is not a fighter that makes mistakes. The same cannot be said for Krylov. If there is a fighter that makes a fight ending mistake, it is far more likely to be Krylov. If no such mistake happens, we will likely see a close fight go to the scorecards. Since damage is scored as the most important factor, I believe Oezdemir is the more likely fighter to get the nod in that scenario as well.
Betting Pick: Oezdemir +155
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