Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated interleague matchup, the Washington Nationals will take on the Toronto Blue Jays on May 4, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a record of 16-16, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 15-18, are struggling below average.

Starting on the mound for the Nationals is right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin. Although Irvin is ranked as the #216 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, his performance this season has been average. In his six starts, Irvin has a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.28. However, his 3.40 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Irvin is Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays' right-handed pitcher. Gausman is ranked as the #46 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his six starts this season, Gausman has a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.50. However, his 3.98 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve in future outings.

The Nationals offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB this season. While their team batting average is impressive, ranking 6th in MLB, their home run production is lacking, ranking 29th. The Blue Jays offense, on the other hand, ranks 18th overall, with a strong team batting average that places them 5th in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays are the favorites with an implied win probability of 60%, while the Nationals are considered underdogs with a 40% chance of winning. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

With the Nationals having a slightly higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, they may have an advantage in this matchup. However, with Gausman's low-strikeout pitching style and the Nationals' ability to put the ball in play, the game could go either way.

As the game unfolds, it will be interesting to see how the Nationals' offense performs against Gausman's pitching and if Irvin can bounce back from his average start to deliver a strong outing. This game promises to be an exciting clash between two teams looking to improve their records and make a mark in the MLB.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average hurler, Kevin Gausman has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an additional 7.4 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cavan Biggio is assured to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game since none of the available options for the Washington Nationals share his handedness.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in the game: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (42.2% compared to 35.4% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nick Senzel has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 28.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 15.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 101 games (+16.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 103 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.66 vs Washington Nationals 3.57

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