Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On May 4, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Colorado Rockies at PNC Park in a National League matchup. The Pirates, with a season record of 14-19, are having a tough time this year. Similarly, the Rockies are struggling with a record of 8-24, making it a battle of two struggling teams.

The Pirates, as the home team, will be looking to turn things around. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones, who has shown promise this season. With a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.18, Jones has been performing well. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve going forward.

On the other side, the Rockies will send left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber to the mound. Gomber has struggled this season with a record of 0-2 and an ERA of 4.50. His FIP indicates that he may have been lucky thus far and could face challenges in this game.

Jones, known for his high strikeout rate, will face a Rockies offense that ranks third in strikeouts in MLB. This could give him an advantage in the game. However, Gomber will be up against a Pirates offense that ranks among the worst in MLB in various categories, including team batting average and home runs.

According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Pirates have the seventh-best bullpen in MLB, while the Rockies rank 14th. This could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

In terms of betting odds, the Pirates are the favorite with a moneyline of -205 and an implied win probability of 65%. The Rockies are considered the underdogs, with a moneyline of +175 and an implied win probability of 35%. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring game.

Overall, this matchup between the struggling Pirates and Rockies is expected to be a battle on the mound. With Jared Jones looking to continue his strong performances and the Pirates' bullpen ranked among the best, they have the edge in this game. However, the Rockies will be determined to turn their season around and could surprise the Pirates with their offense.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Gomber is expected to wring up 4.3 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Elias Diaz's speed has decreased this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.23 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Colorado's 87.9-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in the game: #28 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jared Jones will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing hitters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Bryan Reynolds has been unlucky this year. His .328 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .432.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Today, Edward Olivares is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.3% rate (93rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+13.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 41 away games (+12.13 Units / 30% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 77% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.26 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.22

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