Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Kyle Bradish - Orioles

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are set to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 15, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. As the home team, the Orioles will look to continue their impressive season, boasting a record of 26-14. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have had a below-average season so far with a record of 19-22.

Both teams will be sending right-handed pitchers to the mound, with the Orioles starting Kyle Bradish and the Blue Jays countering with Chris Bassitt. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bradish is ranked as the #34 best starting pitcher in MLB, while Bassitt sits at #62. This suggests that Bradish is a good pitcher while Bassitt is considered above average.

Bradish has started two games this season, showcasing an excellent ERA of 1.86. However, his xFIP is 0.98 points higher than his ERA, indicating that he may have been fortunate so far and could regress in future performances. Bassitt, on the other hand, has started eight games with a 5.06 ERA. However, his xFIP is 0.82 points lower than his ERA, suggesting that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve going forward.

In their last game, the Orioles faced the Blue Jays and lost by a score of 3-2. Despite being the favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -180, the Orioles were unable to secure the win. Conversely, the Blue Jays, who were considered underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +160, emerged victorious.

Offensively, the Orioles have the 7th best ranking in MLB this season, while the Blue Jays sit at 20th. Additionally, the Orioles rank 14th in team batting average, while the Blue Jays have an impressive 5th place ranking in this category. It's worth noting that rankings are based on underlying talent rather than year-to-date performance.

Analyzing the projections, THE BAT X predicts the Orioles as the favorites with a projected win probability of 58%, while the Blue Jays have a projected win probability of 42%. The Orioles have an average implied team total of 3.93 runs, while the Blue Jays have a low implied team total of 3.57 runs.

In terms of individual performances, the Orioles' best hitter this season has been Gunnar Henderson, playing in 40 games with 30 runs, 27 RBIs, 12 home runs, and 6 stolen bases, boasting a batting average of .264 and an OPS of .892. On the other side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the standout hitter for the Blue Jays, with a batting average of .276.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be low-scoring. The Orioles hold a slight edge in the betting market with a moneyline of -130 and an implied win probability of 54%, while the Blue Jays have a moneyline of +110 and an implied win probability of 46%.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Davis Schneider's 17.8% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in baseball: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all SPs, Kyle Bradish's fastball spin rate of 2384.5 rpm grades out in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Anthony Santander's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 26.64 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.17 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.25 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.97 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.44

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