Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Jon Gray - Rangers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers are set to host the Cleveland Guardians at Globe Life Field on May 15, 2024. It will be the third game in the series between these American League teams. The Rangers, with a season record of 22-22, are having an average season, while the Guardians, boasting a record of 27-16, are having a great season.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray, who has been performing well this year. Gray has started 8 games, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.36. However, his 3.39 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. On average, Gray is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, strike out 5.1 batters, and allow 5.4 hits and 1.6 walks per game.

On the other side, the Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has started 8 games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.36. However, his 4.66 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future. Carrasco is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allow 3.2 earned runs, strike out 3.7 batters, and allow 5.7 hits and 1.8 walks per game.

The Rangers offense ranks as the 13th best in MLB this season, with a strong team batting average and ranking 5th in team home runs. However, they struggle in the stolen bases department, ranking 25th. The Guardians offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 15th best in MLB, with an average team batting average and a good ranking in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Rangers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Guardians are the underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. The Rangers have a high implied team total of 4.66 runs, while the Guardians have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs.

With the Rangers' solid offense and the Guardians' struggling pitcher, Carlos Carrasco, the Rangers may have an advantage in drawing walks. However, Jon Gray's ability to throw strikes may not take full advantage of the Guardians' impatience at the plate.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco's slider utilization has increased by 9.9% from last season to this one (18.2% to 28.1%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Tyler Freeman has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .221 BA is considerably lower than his .300 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Estevan Florial hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray's 93.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.5-mph fall off from last season's 95.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Adolis Garcia has a ton of pop (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Carlos Carrasco struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Garcia.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Projected catcher Jonah Heim profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jonah Heim has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.54 vs Texas Rangers 5.04

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.