San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to face off against the San Diego Padres in a National League matchup scheduled for May 18, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 26-15, are having a great season, while the Padres, with a record of 23-24, are having an average season.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Elder, who has started four games this year. Elder has a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.79, which is below average. However, his 4.24 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish, who has started eight games this year. Darvish has a win/loss record of 3-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.43. However, his 3.77 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in future outings.

The Braves offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 6th best in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, which could pose a challenge for Darvish, a high-flyball pitcher. The Padres offense, while ranking 9th in MLB, lags behind in team batting average.

Statistically, the Braves have the edge in terms of offensive power, but the Padres have a strong starting pitcher in Yu Darvish. However, the Braves' projected win probability is higher than their implied win probability, indicating that they may have an advantage in this matchup.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting clash between two National League teams. With the Braves' potent offense and the Padres' strong starting pitcher, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds. The current odds suggest a close game, with the Braves having a higher implied team total for runs scored. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching this matchup to see which team comes out on top.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish performed well in his previous GS and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive talent to be a .311, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .085 disparity between that mark and his actual .396 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Recording 81.4 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Bryce Elder falls in the 15th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Travis d'Arnaud is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 18 games (+15.95 Units / 79% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.71 vs Atlanta Braves 4.69

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