Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
• Run Line: Twins -1.5 -120, White Sox 1.5 100
• Money Line: Twins -205, White Sox 175
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 65%
• Chicago White Sox - 35%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 58.37%
• Chicago White Sox - 41.63%

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the Minnesota Twins in an American League Central matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, with a disappointing record of 6-24 this season, are looking to turn things around against the Twins, who are having a strong season with a record of 16-13.

The White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has struggled this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Flexen is ranked as the #305 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league. In his four starts this year, Flexen has a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.11, which is not impressive.

On the other hand, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober, who has been performing well. Ober is ranked as the #41 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his five starts this year, Ober has a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.21, which is above average. Additionally, Ober's 3.57 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform even better going forward.

In terms of offense, the White Sox have struggled this season, ranking as the #30 best team in MLB. Their team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases rankings are also below average. On the other hand, the Twins have a stronger offense, ranking as the #13 best team in MLB. However, their team batting average and stolen bases rankings are not impressive.

When it comes to the bullpen, the White Sox are ranked as the #28 best in MLB, while the Twins are ranked as the #14 best. This suggests that the Twins have a slight advantage in terms of their relief pitching.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are the favorites to win this game with an implied win probability of 64%. The White Sox, being the underdogs, have an implied win probability of 36%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in the game.

Overall, the Twins have the upper hand in this game, with a stronger offense and a better-ranked starting pitcher. However, baseball is an unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on any given day. The White Sox will be looking to defy the odds and turn their season around with a strong performance against the Twins.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (61.9% compared to 54.3% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.240) provides evidence that Ryan Jeffers has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .281 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Edouard Julien has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen's 90.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph fall off from last year's 91.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 133 games (+12.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+12.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bailey Ober has only hit the Earned Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (-3.20 Units / -58% ROI)

Twins vs White Sox Prediction: Twins 5.29 - White Sox 4.18

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.