Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 140, Brewers 1.5 -165
• Money Line: Rays -120, Brewers 100
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 52%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 51.67%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 48.33%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

The Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays in an Interleague matchup on May 1, 2024, at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a record of 18-11 this season, are having a great season, while the Rays, with a record of 14-17, are having a below-average season.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Colin Rea, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-0 this year and an ERA of 3.25, which is great. However, his 4.75 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zach Eflin, who has a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.08. His 3.58 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

In terms of offense, the Brewers rank as the 3rd best team in MLB this season, despite their low ranking in team batting average (#27). They excel in stolen bases, ranking 10th in the league. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lower ranking in overall offense, but they excel in team batting average (#9) and home runs (#4). Their strong offense could pose a challenge for Colin Rea, who is a high-flyball pitcher.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs, while the Rays have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a close matchup according to the betting markets.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zach Eflin has gone to his secondary offerings 7.3% less often this year (54.6%) than he did last year (61.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Yandy Diaz's footspeed has declined this season. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.61 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Ranking 6th-lowest in MLB since the start of last season, Tampa Bay Rays bats jointly have compiled a 11.5° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced standard to measure power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) suggests that William Contreras has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .299 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Milwaukee Brewers batters collectively rank near the cellar of the league since the start of last season ( 6th-worst) in regard to their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)

Rays vs Brewers Prediction: Rays 4.29 - Brewers 3.9

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