Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 120, D-Backs 1.5 -140
• Money Line: Dodgers -140, D-Backs 115
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 56%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 59.45%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 40.55%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a National League West matchup on May 1, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, with a record of 14-17 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Dodgers boast a strong record of 19-13, making it a great season for them.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen, who has a solid reputation as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gallen has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.38. However, his peripheral indicator, the xERA, suggests that he has been lucky this season and may perform worse going forward.

Opposing Gallen will be the Dodgers' right-handed pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto is considered an elite pitcher, ranking as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started six games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 3.54. His xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank as the 9th best in MLB this season. They have an average team batting average, ranking 11th in the league, an average team home run ranking at 19th, and an impressive 3rd rank in team stolen bases. On the other hand, the Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st overall. They have an average team batting average, a great team home run ranking at 2nd, but a lower rank of 20th in team stolen bases.

The Diamondbacks' best hitter this season has been Christian Walker, who has been performing well over the last seven games. On the other hand, the Dodgers' best hitter over the last seven games has been Will Smith, who has been on a hot streak.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 55%. The Diamondbacks, projected as underdogs, have a win probability of 45%.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Max Muncy is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup profiles as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Jordan Montgomery is expected to tally an average of 3.9 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

This season, there has been a decline in Corbin Carroll's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.05 ft/sec last year to 29.05 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 148 games (+12.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 130 games (+15.90 Units / 10% ROI)

Dodgers vs D-Backs Prediction: Dodgers 5.81 - D-Backs 4.47

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.