Pete Alonso (+300) to Win Home Run Derby
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- Pete Alonso has won two previous Home Run Derbies.
- T-Mobile Park is a very neutral park between left and right-handed hitters, which should play into the hands of the best pure power hitter.
- No other player in the field for this event has won a Home Run Derby.
One of the most fun events on the MLB schedule each year is the annual Home Run Derby, where the top power hitters in the league absolutely destroy baseballs for our entertainment. This year should be a thrilling version of the derby, as three of the top-five home run hitters in the league headline a loaded field. Here, we provide our MLB picks for the 2023 Home Run Derby from T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Home Run Derby Best Bet: Pete Alonso (+300)
Why Bet On Pete Alonso:
✅ T-Mobile Park is almost identical to left and right field from a dimensions perspective. That will mean no clear advantage for left or right-handed hitters, which will reward Alonso and the fact that he has the most pure power of the eight hitters in this year’s derby.
✅ Alonso has already won this event twice in his career, while no other batter in this derby has won it.
2023 Home Run Derby Ballpark Analysis
T-Mobile Park is the home of the Seattle Mariners, and the home of this year’s All-Star festivities, including the Home Run Derby. From a dimensions perspective, there is no clear edge for batters on one side of the plate over the other, as this park is almost symmetrical to the foot. Here is a look at the distances to each part of the park.
- Left Field: 331 feet
- Left-Center Field: 378 feet
- Center Field: 401 feet
- Right-Center Field: 380 feet
- Right Field: 326 feet
The weather forecast for Monday night does not indicate that any weather advantage will exist for specific hitters. The temperature should be right around 70 degrees, while the wind will be fairly calm. That should mean a perfectly neutral canvas for the eight competitors in this year’s derby to showcase their power.
2023 Home Run Derby Statistical Analysis
From a statistical standpoint, the derby is an event that favors hitters who can get more swings in than their opponent, given that there is a time limit involved. Additionally, the ability to get the ball into the air is key, as distance is easier to come by than it is in live game action. Below is a list of the home run totals for each derby participant going into this event, and their average launch angles for the 2023 MLB season.
Hitter | Home Runs in 2023 | Launch Angle (in degrees) |
Mookie Betts | 26 | 19.7 |
Luis Robert | 26 | 16.1 |
Pete Alonso | 26 | 15.7 |
Adolis Garcia | 23 | 15.5 |
Randy Arozarena | 16 | 12.1 |
Vlad Guerrero Jr. | 13 | 9.5 |
Julio Rodriguez | 13 | 9.1 |
Adley Rutschman | 12 | 11.7 |
Now, it should be noted that the final two competitors in last year’s event had the lowest average launch angle numbers going into that derby, as Juan Soto defeated Julio Rodriguez at the very end. But in that derby, Pete Alonso was beaten in the first round by Albert Pujols, in that wild upset in Pujols’ final All-Star festivities. With no such feel-good story set to unfold in this derby, Alonso and his high launch angle should be much more of a factor.