The Navy Midshipmen (8–2, 6–1 AAC) and Memphis Tigers (8–3, 4–3 AAC) will square off on Thursday at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. This Thanksgiving night meeting carries massive weight, as Navy enters this week in a three-way tie for first place in the American Athletic Conference standings. Before this huge game kicks off in the AAC, you will find my Navy vs Memphis prediction right here.
Our Navy vs Memphis Pick
- Pick: Memphis −5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 27, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
One of the most compelling narratives going into this game is how Navy’s option offense will perform under the lights in a hostile road environment. The Midshipmen are among the most dominant rushing teams in the country, and if they can control the line of scrimmage and chew up clock, they could take this game on the road and finish their AAC season with just one loss.
Memphis brings a dynamic, balanced offense into this matchup. Their ability to mix in the pass and get chunk plays could pose serious problems for Navy, especially on third downs and in the red zone. Their defensive unit has enough playmaking to disrupt Navy’s rhythm and force key mistakes. But gap discipline will be huge for the Tigers if they want to win this game and finish their regular season at 9-3.
The big question in this game is who will get off to a fast start. If Navy takes an early lead, they can impose their preferred style of play onto this game and try to slow the tempo down. If Memphis gets off to a strong start, Navy will have to put the ball in the air and step outside of their comfort zone.
Quarterback Play
Memphis’ Brendon Lewis has thrown for 2,395 yards and 13 touchdowns while completing 71.7% of his passes. He’s not one-dimensional either. He’s rushed for 582 yards and added 9 scores on the ground. His dual-threat nature makes Memphis’ offense dangerous in multiple ways when the ball is in his hands.
Navy’s Blake Horvath has passed for 1,290 yards with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season. But his real value comes in the running game. He has carried the ball 159 times for 986 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. He’s their engine and the key to making their triple-option offense work.
Betting Trends
- Memphis is 8–3 against the spread this season.
- Navy is 3–7 against the spread on the year.
- The over has hit in 8 of Navy’s 10 games this season.
- Memphis’ games have gone over their totals 7 times in 11 games.
Navy vs Memphis Model Projection
Projected Score: Navy 24 – Memphis 31
Win Probability: Navy 44%, Memphis 56%
Final Thoughts
Navy’s ground game is always tough to stop. But I think Memphis will do a good enough job of slowing down Horvath and the Midshipmen to win this game by a touchdown or more. I’ll lay the points with Memphis, who should deny Navy a shot at playing for the AAC title.
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