The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers will renew their NFC North rivalry on Thursday afternoon in one of three Thanksgiving games. Detroit enters as the favorite at home and both teams are looking for an important win in this matchup with huge NFC North and NFC playoff implications. Before this contest kicks off from Detroit, I’ll break it all down and give you my Packers vs Lions prediction.
Our Packers vs Lions Pick
- Pick: Over 48.5 points
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 27, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
The Lions have had to overcome a major personnel adjustment as tight end Sam LaPorta is unlikely to return this season after back surgery. His absence removes a vital chain-moving option and red-zone threat. Detroit will lean more heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and its backfield to maintain its production in the passing game. Brock Wright takes over at tight end, but replicating LaPorta’s production is a tall order for him.
Green Bay’s defense may receive a significant boost with defensive end Lukas Van Ness working back into practice following a foot injury. His return strengthens their depth up front and could influence Detroit’s protection schemes. Pressure on Jared Goff inside Ford Field often determines whether or not the Lions can get into a rhythm.
This game is huge in the playoff race in the NFC. Green Bay enters this week in second place in the NFC North, a half-game behind the Chicago Bears. The Lions are a half-game behind the Packers. The winner of this game will give themselves a huge boost in the race to win the division, even if both teams are expected to make the playoffs.
Quarterback Play
Jared Goff continues to guide Detroit efficiently. He has thrown for 2,769 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on the season. Without LaPorta, he’ll need strong performances from his wideouts and running backs in the intermediate passing game. Jordan Love enters the holiday spotlight after an efficient start to the season. Love has thrown for 2,560 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on the year.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Detroit is 6-5 against the spread this season and 4-1 straight up at home.
- Green Bay is 4-7 against the spread this year and 3-1-1 straight up on the road.
- The Lions have gone over the total in 6 of their 11 games.
- The Packers have gone over the total in 5 of their 11 games.
- The Packers defeated the Lions 27-13 at Lambeau Field in Week 1 of this season.
Packers vs Lions Model Projection
Score Projection: Packers 24 – Lions 27
Win Probability: Lions 62%, Packers 38%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this Thanksgiving Day opener is for the Lions and Packers to combine to go over the total in this matchup. Both teams can move the ball through the air effectively. And after Detroit’s defense was just torched by Jameis Winston and the Giants, I think we are in for a high-scoring matchup at Ford Field.
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