The Kansas City Chiefs head to Dallas for a Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Cowboys on Thursday in a game that could carry major playoff implications. Both teams are sitting around the .500 mark and are coming off dramatic come-from-behind victories in Week 12. Which team will come away with a massive victory in this contest from AT&T Stadium? Below, I make my Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction for Thursday’s matchup.
Our Chiefs vs Cowboys Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Get all of my NFL predictions before Week 13 kicks off!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 27, 2025, 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
The injury report could have a big effect on this game. The Chiefs are likely to be without right guard Trey Smith, who is reportedly dealing with both high and low-ankle sprains. That absence could put pressure on Patrick Mahomes and disrupt Kansas City’s protection scheme. Tight end Noah Gray is in concussion protocol, and Chris Roland-Wallace is managing a back issue. Those losses on the interior line and in the tight end room could alter Kansas City’s run/pass balance.
Dallas is also dealing with injuries in bunches. They are down multiple offensive tackles and that could cause them some major problems against a Chiefs defense that is so good at getting pressure on the quarterback.
The Chiefs’ Week 12 win over Indianapolis was huge for their playoff hopes. They erased an 11-point 4th-quarter deficit and won in overtime thanks to kicker Harrison Butker. In that game, Mahomes threw for 352 yards and one interception, but the consistency and composure from Mahomes down the stretch was impressive as always.
Dallas trailed the Philadelphia Eagles 21-0 in their latest game. They came back with 24 straight points to get the win. Dak Prescott threw for 354 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick, showing he’s got enough juice to lead a comeback against a championship-caliber team.
Quarterback Play
Patrick Mahomes remains the engine that powers the Chiefs’ offense. He has thrown for 2,977 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Late in the season is when Mahomes is at his best and Mahomes will try to get his team another huge win in this contest.
Prescott has thrown for 2,941 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions going into this matchup. His connection with George Pickens has been impressive, as Pickens crossed the 1,000-yard mark for the season last week against Philadelphia.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City is 5-5-1 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The Cowboys are 6-5 against the spread so far this season.
- The Chiefs have gone under the total in 8 of their first 11 games.
- Dallas is 7-4 to the over entering Week 13 action.
Chiefs vs Cowboys Model Projection
Score Projection: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 20
Win Probability: Chiefs 58%, Cowboys 42%
Final Thoughts
Both teams could really use a win in this game to help their playoff hopes. And when the chips are down, I like the idea of backing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs more than I like the idea of backing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. I’ll lay the points with the Chiefs in this massive matchup from Jerry World.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
