The biggest game of the 2020-21 college basketball season so far will take place at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Saturday, December 5, as the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs take on No. 2 Baylor Bears.
Although it’s early in the season for bold predictions, these two schools top the AP Poll for a reason. We should see a tremendous clash at the neutral site in Indiana, so here’s my best betting pick for the Zags versus Bears showdown along with the key stats and betting tips.
The Bulldogs have defeated some tough teams thus far
The Gonzaga Bulldogs opened the new college basketball season with a 102-90 victory over the No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks. The Zags continued their journey with a comfortable 90-67 win over the Auburn Tigers, and they outlasted the No. 11 West Virginia Mountaineers 87-82 this past Wednesday.
Gonzaga is 2-1 ATS after failing to cover an 8.5-point spread against the Mountaineers. Forwards Drew Timme and Corey Kispert lead the way for the Zags, while five different players are averaging points in double figures. Timme is tallying 23.3 points and 6.3 boards per game and Kispert is adding 22.3 points on 60.5% shooting from the field.
The Zags rank first in the KenPom rankings, too. They are scoring 117.2 points per 100 possessions (1st in the country) while surrendering 87.9 to their rivals (17th). The Bulldogs are playing at the 11th-fastest pace, recording 76.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
The Cougars aim for their fourth straight win
The Baylor Bears are 3-0 on the season following an 82-69 victory to the Illinois Fighting Illini this past Wednesday. They easily covered 4.5-point chalk, improving to 3-0 against the spread. The Bears opened with a 112-82 victory over Louisiana, while they beat Washington 86-52.
The Bears returned all their key players from the previous season, and four guys are averaging points in double digits this term. Junior guard Jared Butler is tallying 16.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game; senior guard MaCio Teague is posting 15.7 points and 5.0 rebounds, while junior guard Davion Mitchell is adding 13.0 points, 4.0 boards, and 6.7 assists a night.
Baylor is No. 2 in the latest KenPom rankings. The Bears are scoring 115.8 points per 100 possessions (2nd in the nation) while yielding 87.1 in a return (8th). They are recording 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes (284th).
Trends:
Gonzaga:
- 1-4 ATS in the last five games away from home
- 1-3 ATS in the last four games against Baylor
Baylor:
- 13-7 ATS in the last 20 games overall
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/baylor_bears” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]The Winner Prediction
The Zags have won four straight encounters with the Bears, but they are only 1-3 ATS in the process. These two schools met each other in the previous Big Dance, and the Zags outlasted the Bears 83-71 as 14.5-point favorites in the second round of the West region.
Saturday’s clash could go either way, and I’m taking the risk with the Bears to cover. Keep tracking the odds update on BetAmerica, but I would go with the Bears even if they open as slight favorites.
As I’ve mentioned, Baylor returned its best players, and the Bears have impressed on both sides of the ball in their first three outings this season. They have great depth and enough weapons in their arsenal to deal with the No. 1 team in the country.
Pick: Take Baylor Bears and the points
The Total:
The over is a ridiculous 16-2 in Gonzaga’s last 18 games overall. On the other side, six of Baylor’s last seven games went in the over. If you like to follow betting trends, there’s no arguing about where your money goes.
I’m betting on the over not only because of the trends. The Zags love to push the ball in transition and will try their best to speed up the tempo against the Bears’ stout defense.
This is the toughest matchup for the Bears so far, and I think they’ll need some time to get used to guarding the best team in the country. Furthermore, both Baylor and Gonzaga execute offensively very well.
Pick: Go over