Manel Kape vs Rogerio Bontorin Fight Odds
Manel Kape -240 vs Rogerio Bontorin
Fight is at 125 lbs and is -180 to end inside the distance.
Manel Kape has had a surge of late, winning his most recent two fights via KO. The KO of Zhalgas Zhumagulov was clean, but the fight before that should be addressed. It went down as a flying knee KO of Ode Osbourne, but most agree that was a bad stoppage, and the knee did not land flush, despite creating a knockdown.
Kape is sound as a striker and does have power. He will be the technically smoother striker in the matchup, but is facing a well rounded fighter here. Let’s not forget he struggled against two such fighters in his first two UFC fights. He dropped a pair of decisions to Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau. In this matchup, Kape will be tasked with keeping the fight pretty and upright. He will have to have his takedown defense hold up and avoid brawling exchanges, as he will not have the power edge.
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I feel Rogerio Bontorin is at least somewhat disrespected on the betting line in this matchup. Bontorin is coming off a very close split decision loss to Brandon Royval. I believe Royval is a superior fighter to Kape. Bontorin is not a truly polished striker by any means, but he does bring real power. He will be the fighter more likely to land a difference making strike, even if he is not winning the striking battle overall. Where Bontorin has a large edge is in his developed wrestling and grappling game. Bontorin will be able to land takedowns in this fight, and he will have something of a significant edge on the mat. He will be quite live for a submission once on the floor. Even if the submission does not come, the control time will be there and Bontorin will be able to take rounds with that alone.
What To Bet
Again, I do not think this betting line is remotely accurate. If I were lining this fight, I would have it close to a pick em, with Bontorin being that small favorite. I think the wrestling and grappling portions of this fight will be Bontorin’s. I believe those portions of the fight will be more significant than the stand up portions, which will likely go to Kape. Bontorin also has the power wild card in the stand up. In totality, we have an extremely live dog. Bontorin is more likely to win the fight and we are getting a highly favorable +185 return.
Betting Pick: Bontorin +185
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