Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik Fight Odds
Ilir Latifi -185 vs Aleksei Oleinik
Fight is at heavyweight and is -185 to end inside the distance.
This is an interesting and probably quite difficult matchup for 44 year old Aleksei Oleinik. As we all know by now, Oleinik is one of the best submission aces we have ever seen in the heavyweight division. Oleinik hhas six submission wins in the UFC alone, and an utterly insane 46 submission wins across 76 career fights.
All of the above things are true, but he has had a tougher go of it of late. He has just two wins in his last seven fights over four years. Only one of those wins came via submission. Oleinik has had problems gassing out and with getting knocked out. He has been knocked out in four of his last five losses and each time he fought a fighter with real power. He now draws an opponent that has power, but also has some pros and cons with that power for a matchup with Oleinik.
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Ilir Latifi will walk for his third heavyweight fight in the UFC. This move up came with age after a fairly successful six year stint at light heavyweight. Latifi is a very high end wrestler and a striker with power, but one that lacks striking volume.
How It Will Work For Latifi
The biggest stylistic edge for Latifi in this fight is in his wrestling. Particularly in his takedown defense. Across 14 UFC fights, Latifi has never been taken down. It is at a level where opponents do not waste their energy trying, as all of his opponents combined have only attempted seven takedowns. That will not be the case in this fight however, as Oleinik will be trying to get the fight down. I do not believe he succeeds, instead spending his gas tank on takedowns that will not come. Latifi will have a huge advantage in dictating where the fight takes place.
In the stand up, I have a difficult time saying Latifi will have a volume edge over anyone, Oleinik included. However he will have the overhand right that can put Oleinik’s lights out, particularly after Oleinik gets a little bit tired. While Latifi is never going to be a fighter landing in heavy volume, he will have the look of the better fighter in the stand up where not a whole lot will be happening.
Latifi will also have the option of taking the fight down himself. Of course there is danger on the mat with Oleinik, but Latifi is seasoned and really knows how to control opponents. I would not be surprised to see him use his takedowns later in the fight when Oleinik is more limited and use that to grind out rounds. In any event, there is no overly realistic path to victory for Oleinik outside of submission in this matchup.
What To Bet
I think this is going to be a boring fight for the most part. That is a good thing for Latifi as he knows how to win those. He may find a very early finish or a late finish, but I think he just keeps himself out of danger for the most part. Decision is probably the most likely outcome. In any event, -185 on Latifi is a great play, even if the fight is not going to bring us fireworks.
Betting Pick: Latifi -185
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