UFC Vegas 45 comes at this Saturday at 4PM EST. It streams to us live from the Apex in Las Vegas. This will be the last event of 2021 as we wind down for the holiday break. This card sticks with the volume we have had of late. There will be 14 fights in total. Those fights are punctuated by a heavyweight matchup between Chris Daukaus and Derrick Lewis that will very likely end in a knock out.
Quick Look Back
Before diving into this week’s action, let’s take a look back at how we did last week. Our fighters went 4-2 and our bets went 3-3.
We profited a small portion of one unit on the week. We started the night with Randy Costa essentially neutering himself. The reckless abandon that has scored him first round knock outs was gone. In its stead was a fighter concerned with pacing himself that gassed anyway. He was finished in the second round.
It took a turn upwards from there. Erin Blanchfield was absolutely dominant in her win over Miranda Maverick and cashed as an underdog. That was followed up by both Bruno Silva and Tai Tuivasa absolutely starching their opponents for us.
The final two fights essentially had the same story, and ended in losses. Pedro Munhoz hurt Dominick Cruz badly in the first round. He was very close to a finish. That sequence essentially made him fall in love with his punches and not throw the leg attacks he needed to, resulting in a clear 29-28 decision loss. Josh Emmett won his fight, but we were more aggressive, betting him to win inside the distance. Despite an early first round knockdown, Emmett could not get the finish. He was certainly head hunting far too much instead of simply landing strikes that likely would have brought a finish.
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UFC Vegas 45 Card Overview
As far as Fight Nights go, this one is middle of the road. The volume of 14 fights is certainly nice. Additionally there are very few low end fights. The bottom of the heavyweight division is very rough in general, and that’s where the low end fights come from. The rest of the card is middle of the road. There is simply a long list of well made but not high end matchups.
There are some intriguing story lines as well. On the prelims, we will see if Jordan Leavitt can overcome cardio issues if he is unable to get a first round submission on the returning Matt Sayles. Macy Chiasson will seek the biggest win of her career as she takes on Rocky Pennington. We will see how many developments Melissa Gatto continues to make as she takes on Sijara Eubanks. Most intriguingly, we will see Raoni Barcelos look to get back in the win column as he takes on very fun newcomer Victor Henry.
On the main card, there are questions that we will have answered. We will find out whether Diego Ferreira can get back in the win column. He takes a step down from elite competition to very good competition as he takes Mateusz Gamrot. We will also find out whether Amanda Lemos can continue her impressive run as she is matched up with high volume vet Angela Hill.
UFC Vegas 45 Main Event
This heavyweight bout will see some leather thrown with very real velocity. Derrick Lewis will have the same paths to victory or defeat that he essentially always does. Those are win by knock out or lose by either finish or decision. The matchup with Chris Daukaus is very intriguing as Daukaus has notched four straight knock outs to start his UFC career.
Daukaus is beginning to look like one of the few fighters that can match Lewis in the power department. His opponents truly have huge reactions to his shots, and he has the look of a future title challenger if he can notch a fifth straight win. I was very close to making Daukaus ITD a dedicated play, but have been burned betting against Derrick Lewis in the past. I would not blame you if decided to take that action in the main event.
Now we are on to our betting plays. We have three bets on this card. We will be taking three favorites, one of which ITD. Let’s get to them.
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Click the links below to read our bets and analyses.
Stephen Thompson vs Belal Muhammad
Ricky Simon vs Raphael Assuncao
Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry
Other Fight Predictions
Chris Daukaus via KO over Derrick Lewis
Amanda Lemos via KO over Angela Hill
Mateusz Gamrot via decision over Diego Ferreira
Cub Swanson via KO over Darren Elkins
Gerald Meerschart via submission over Dustin Stoltzfus
Justin Tafa via KO over Harry Hunsucker
Melissa Gatto via decision over Sijara Eubanks
Charles Jourdain via KO over Andre Ewell
Raquel Pennington via decision over Macy Chiasson
Josh Parisian via KO over DonTale Mayes
Jordan Leavitt via submission over Matt Sayles
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