Sunday’s college basketball brings the American Athletic Conference showdown between the UCF Knights and Houston Cougars, so I’ve prepared all need-to-know betting tips and trends along with my best betting pick and the latest odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.
These two schools already met each other on December 26, 2020, and the Cougars beat the Knights 63-54 as 7.5-point road favorites. Houston has won six of its last seven encounters with Central Florida including the previous two.
The Knights hope for an upset to snap their skid
The UCF Knights (3-4; 1-3 Conf.) have dropped three straight games and are coming off a 62-55 defeat at the Temple Owls as 3-point road favorites. It was their third straight ATS loss, too, and the Knights are 2-4 ATS over their last six games.
Central Florida is No. 82 in the latest NCAA NET Rankings and No. 97 in the KenPom rankings. The Knights allow 95.2 points per 100 possessions, but their offense has been a big issue, tallying only 102.7 points in a return (140th).
Senior G Brandon Mahan leads the way for the Knights with 15.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. Sophomore G Darin Green has 13.4 points per contest while making 44.7% of his 3-pointers, and freshman F Isaiah Adams adds 12.7 points and 4.0 boards a night, mostly coming off the bench.
The Cougars aim for their fourth straight win in 2021
The Houston Cougars (10-1; 5-1 Conf.) bounced back nicely from their lone loss of the season at Tulsa 65-64, winning three straight games this calendar year while covering twice in the process. They are coming off a 71-50 dismantling off Tulane, tallying their 17th straight win on the home court.
The Cougars are topping the American standings at the moment, half a game ahead of Wichita State. Houston is the No. 6 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 11 in the KenPom rankings, as the Cougars brag with the fourth-best defensive rating in the country (88.3). They score 112.3 points per 100 possessions, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency.
Junior G Quentin Grimes and sophomore G Marcus Sasser lead the way for the Cougars this season. Grimes is tallying 17.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, while Sasser is adding 16.3 points a night. Senior G Dejon Jarreau is another key guy in Houston’s rotation, posting 9.1 points, 6.2 boards, and 3.1 assists per contest.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”ncaab/houston” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]UCF:
- 1-5 ATS in the last six games on the road
- 1-4 ATS in the last five tilts played in January
Houston:
- 6-3 ATS in the last nine games overall
- 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games against UCF
- 13-4 ATS in the last 17 contests played on Sunday
The Winner Prediction
The Cougars dominated the Knights on the defensive end in their previous meeting in December, allowing them to make only 37.2% of their field goals and 15.4% of their 3-pointers. Also, the Cougars forced 17 turnovers to compensate for their poor offensive display.
Houston could have some problems to execute well against UCF’s defense, but nowhere near the number of problems the Knights will have against the Cougars’ D. I expect the hosts to make a huge difference with their aggressive defensive approach once more.
Pick: Take Houston -13.5 at -110
The Total:
This should be a proper low-scoring affair, so I’m not surprised by that low line at 129.5 points. Both teams love to play at a slow pace, especially the Cougars who average just 65.6 possessions per 40 minutes. When you add their terrific defense into the equation along with the Knights’ inefficient offense, betting on the under seems like the right move.
The under is 12-3 in Houston’s last 15 games on the home court, and it is 5-2 in UCF’s previous seven tilts overall. On the other hand, seven of the last nine meetings between the Knights and Cougars went in the over.
Pick: Go under 129.5 points at -110