Zach Ertz NFL Week 4 projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals on Sep 29, 2024
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 3.5 over: 140
- Receptions 3.5 under: -180
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to notch 5.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz's 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for TEs.
The Washington O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Zach Ertz is positioned as one of the best pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
The leading projections forecast the Commanders as the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have just 125.4 total plays run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
With a poor 64.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz places as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among TEs.
Since the start of last season, the stout Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a mere 71.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.
Projection For Zach Ertz Receptions Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 3.4 Receptions in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 29.5 over: -115
- Receiving Yards 29.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to notch 5.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
When it comes to air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 40.0 per game.
Zach Ertz's 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for TEs.
The Washington O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The leading projections forecast the Commanders as the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have just 125.4 total plays run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
With a poor 64.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz places as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among TEs.
Zach Ertz comes in as one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging just 4.74 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
Projection For Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 30 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
