Patrick Mahomes projections, stats and prop bet odds for Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs on Sep 15, 2024
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: -130
- Interceptions 0.5 under: -100
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (adjusted for context) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.10 seconds per play.
In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.1.
The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
In logging a staggering 0.95 interceptions per game since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes places among the weakest QBs in football (13th percentile).
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
With a 4-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
The Cincinnati cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection For Today's Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 0.4 Interceptions in todays game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 20.5 over: -103
- Rushing Yards 20.5 under: -133
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
With a 4-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (adjusted for context) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.10 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's ground game in this game (20.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.0% in games he has played).
With an outstanding rate of 23.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (82nd percentile), Patrick Mahomes has been among the top rushing quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to run on 38.2% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Cincinnati's unit has been exceptional since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection For Today's Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 29.4 Rushing Yards in todays game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 4.5 over: -125
- Carries 4.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
With a 4-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (adjusted for context) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.10 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's ground game in this game (20.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.0% in games he has played).
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to run on 38.2% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Cincinnati's unit has been exceptional since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection For Today's Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 5.1 Carries in todays game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Completions
Completions Prop Bet Odds:
- Completions 24.5 over: -130
- Completions 24.5 under: -100
Trends Favoring The Over Completions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (adjusted for context) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.10 seconds per play.
In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.1.
With an excellent 67.9% Adjusted Completion% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a staggering 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-largest rate in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Completions Prop Bet
With a 4-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
The Cincinnati cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection For Today's Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 24 Completions in todays game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 271.5 over: -114
- Passing Yards 271.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (adjusted for context) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.10 seconds per play.
In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.1.
With a stellar rate of 277.0 adjusted passing yards per game (97th percentile), Patrick Mahomes ranks among the top quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (255.0 per game) vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
With a 4-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
The Cincinnati cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection For Today's Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 280.8 Passing Yards in todays game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: -180
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: 135
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (adjusted for context) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.10 seconds per play.
With an excellent 67.9% Adjusted Completion% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a staggering 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-largest rate in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
With a 4-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
The Cincinnati cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection For Today's Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 2 Touchdown Passes in todays game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Pass Attempts
Pass Attempts Prop Bet Odds:
- Pass Attempts 36.5 over: -114
- Pass Attempts 36.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (adjusted for context) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.10 seconds per play.
In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.1.
Trends Favoring The Under Pass Attempts Prop Bet
With a 4-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Projection For Today's Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 35.5 Pass Attempts in todays game.
