Patrick Mahomes NFL Week 4 projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers on Sep 29, 2024
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 4.5 over: 105
- Carries 4.5 under: -140
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to run on 37.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
After taking on 15.6% of his team's run game usage last year, Patrick Mahomes has been called on less the running game this year, currently taking on only 9.9%.
The Chargers safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 3 Carries in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: 105
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: -135
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (58.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.
Patrick Mahomes profiles as one of the best precision passers in football since the start of last season with a stellar 67.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
The projections expect the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 1.5 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Pass Attempts
Pass Attempts Prop Bet Odds:
- Pass Attempts 34.5 over: -120
- Pass Attempts 34.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.5.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.
Trends Favoring The Under Pass Attempts Prop Bet
A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
The projections expect the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 33.6 Pass Attempts in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 256.5 over: 100
- Passing Yards 256.5 under: -130
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.5.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.
With an outstanding record of 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Patrick Mahomes rates among the leading QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
The projections expect the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 277.9 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 19.5 over: -125
- Rushing Yards 19.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
With an impressive record of 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (80th percentile), Patrick Mahomes ranks among the leading rushing QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to run on 37.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
After taking on 15.6% of his team's run game usage last year, Patrick Mahomes has been called on less the running game this year, currently taking on only 9.9%.
The Chargers safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 17.9 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Completions
Completions Prop Bet Odds:
- Completions 24.5 over: -115
- Completions 24.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Completions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.5.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.
Patrick Mahomes profiles as one of the best precision passers in football since the start of last season with a stellar 67.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Completions Prop Bet
A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
The projections expect the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 23.7 Completions in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: -125
- Interceptions 0.5 under: -109
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.5.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.
Patrick Mahomes has tallied 1.02 interceptions per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 7th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
The projections expect the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 0.5 Interceptions in this weeks game.
For more player prop bets & game projections visit the ATS.io NFL props section
